ZX如何看苹果升级方向？写在果链大涨之际

Summary of Apple AI Industry Insights Company and Industry Overview - The report focuses on Apple's development in AI technology, particularly its proprietary models and future strategies in the AI sector [1][5][12]. Key Points and Arguments Current Status of Apple Intelligence - Apple’s AI capabilities are demonstrated through its proprietary models, which include a 3 billion parameter model on-device and a private cloud model that competes with GPT-3.5-Turbo [1]. - Apple’s models have shown a winning or tie probability of over 65% against mainstream 7 billion parameter models and over 70% against cloud models like GPT-3.5-Turbo [1]. - Apple plans to collaborate with third-party models, indicating confidence in its own model's strength [1]. Future Development Directions for Apple AI - Apple aims to enhance on-device computing power and memory, increasing model parameters while also expanding cloud computing capabilities [5]. - The on-device model currently supports 3 billion parameters, with plans to upgrade to higher specifications, including a projected increase in processing power from 35 TOPS to over 40 TOPS [5]. - The report highlights the need for improved memory and cooling solutions to support the growing demands of AI applications [5][6]. Demand and Market Dynamics - The upcoming upgrade cycle for iPhones is expected to be driven by AI capabilities, with only the iPhone 15 Pro and Pro Max currently supporting Apple Intelligence [12]. - There are approximately 1.46 billion active iPhone devices globally, providing a substantial market for upgrades [12]. - The anticipated AI-driven upgrade cycle is expected to be stronger than the previous 5G upgrade cycle due to Apple's competitive advantages in AI [12]. Supply Chain and Component Insights - Apple is expected to significantly increase its server procurement, with plans to purchase 20,000 to 30,000 servers in 2023 and 2024 [7]. - The report suggests monitoring companies like Hon Hai Precision Industry, Luxshare Precision, and Pegatron for their roles in Apple's supply chain [7]. Investment Opportunities in the Supply Chain - The report identifies key players in the Apple supply chain that are likely to benefit from the AI-driven upgrade cycle, including: - Pegatron: 70% exposure to Apple, 60% to iPhone [16] - Luxshare Precision: 75% exposure to Apple, 40% to iPhone [16] - Crystal Optoelectronics: 60% exposure to Apple, 55% to iPhone [16] - The report emphasizes the importance of product innovation and the potential for increased average selling prices (ASP) and gross margins due to rising demand [14][15]. Additional Important Insights - The report discusses the expected increase in battery capacity and charging power requirements due to enhanced on-device AI capabilities [6]. - It also highlights the anticipated growth in the value of components such as microphones and cooling systems as AI functionalities expand [6]. This comprehensive analysis provides a detailed overview of Apple's strategic direction in AI, the expected market dynamics, and the implications for its supply chain and investment opportunities.