国君策略外资占比下降，港股高股息受内资青睐

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus is on the Hong Kong stock market, particularly the performance of the Hang Seng Index and its components, influenced by macroeconomic factors and foreign investment trends [1][2][3][4][8]. Key Points Economic Indicators - China's Inflation Data: In May, China's CPI increased by 0.3% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 0.4%, and decreased by 0.1% month-on-month. The PPI fell by 1.4% year-on-year, showing a narrowing decline compared to April [1][3]. - US Inflation Data: The US CPI rose by 3.3% year-on-year in May, also below the expected 3.4% [1][3]. Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index fell by 2.3% last week, with the Hang Seng Technology Index down by 2.1% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down by 1.7% [1][4]. - The decline in the Hong Kong stock market is attributed to weak demand and a hawkish stance from the US Federal Reserve, which is expected to only lower interest rates once this year [1][2]. Foreign Investment Trends - Declining Foreign Ownership: Foreign ownership in Hong Kong stocks has decreased from 51% in 2018 to 33% by June 2024. In contrast, domestic investment has increased from 19% to 34% during the same period [8][9]. - Local Investment Stability: Hong Kong local funds maintain a holding range of 30%-35% in the market, indicating a shift in investment dynamics [8]. Capital Flows - Southbound Capital Inflows: Southbound funds have consistently flowed into Hong Kong stocks, particularly in high-dividend sectors such as banking, energy, and telecommunications. For the week of June 11-14, net inflows totaled HKD 269.6 billion [9]. - Sector Performance: The top three sectors for net buying were energy (HKD 43.2 billion), banking (HKD 34.9 billion), and telecommunications (HKD 25.0 billion) [9]. Investment Strategy - Market Outlook: The outlook for the Hong Kong stock market is cautiously optimistic, with expectations of a gradual upward trend due to improved economic policies and declining overseas interest rates. The market is believed to have priced in pessimistic expectations [10]. - Sector Focus: Growth sectors such as internet, semiconductors, automotive, and pharmaceuticals are expected to perform well, while high-dividend stocks remain attractive [10]. Risk Factors - Key risks include slower-than-expected domestic economic recovery, rising international geopolitical tensions, and potential delays in the US Federal Reserve's monetary easing [12]. Additional Insights - The shift in investor composition in the Hong Kong market is significant, as it reduces the influence of foreign capital on stock prices, potentially leading to a more stable market environment [8][9]. - The focus on high-dividend sectors indicates a preference for stability among investors amid economic uncertainties [9][10].