大通：股市2024年下半年展望

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The MXCN index is expected to trade better heading into July and August, with a forecasted EPS of HK$5.82 for 2024, slightly above the consensus of HK$5.80, indicating a 16% and 13% EPS growth year-on-year for 2024 and 2025 respectively [1][1][1] - The MXCN's FTM PE discounts compared to MSCI World and MSCI EM are at the 98th percentile since 2001, suggesting a favorable valuation environment [1] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the first half of 2024, the MXCN constituents have executed buybacks totaling approximately US$11 billion, which is about 0.1% of the market cap, indicating a significant increase compared to previous years [1] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The consensus has raised 2024 EPS estimates for MXCN, reflecting improved expectations for retail sales and e-commerce GMV following a series of disappointments [1] - The MXCN and CSI-300 reported EPS growth of 9% and -3% year-on-year respectively for the calendar year ending December 2023, while smaller indices like CSI500 and CSI1000 saw declines of -14% and -28% year-on-year [1][1] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company maintains a bullish stance on AI and is balancing exposure towards domestic demand while reducing reliance on contentious exports [1] - The strategy includes a preference for large-cap stocks over small and mid-caps, anticipating more mergers and acquisitions, business exits, and distressed sales benefiting sector leaders [1] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management anticipates that four out of five domestic cycles in the China equity strategy framework may improve in the second half of 2024, with the credit/NPL cycle being the exception [1] - There are expectations of continued improvements in the property market and a better-than-expected earnings turnaround, which could support the MXCN and CSI-300 index targets [1] Other Important Information - The upcoming 3rd plenum and end-July Politburo meeting are expected to provide further support for the MXCN, alongside improving macro data and property transactions [1] - The geopolitical cycle, particularly the US presidential election, poses risks that could affect investor sentiment and market stability [1] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the risks associated with the current market environment? - The unfolding NPL cycle and uncertainties surrounding global cycles, particularly related to interest rates and the upcoming US elections, are significant risks [1] Question: How does the company view the domestic rebalancing cycle? - The company sees the domestic rebalancing cycle as favoring minority investors and expects more supply-side reforms to stabilize equities [1] Question: What is the outlook for the AI sector? - The company remains structurally bullish on AI, anticipating strong demand and growth in this sector [1]