风电电网产业链周评（6月第4周）：特高压工程高质量建设大会召开， 2024年有望成为海上风电设备采购大年

Summary of Wind Power and Power Grid Industry Research Industry Overview - The report focuses on the wind power and power grid sectors in China, highlighting significant developments and investment trends in 2024 [1][2][3]. Key Points on Wind Power - 2024 Wind Power Bidding Capacity: As of 2024, the cumulative public bidding capacity for wind turbines in China reached 45.7 GW, a 12% increase year-on-year. This includes 41.7 GW for onshore wind (up 16%) and 4.0 GW for offshore wind (down 19%) [2][11]. - Average Winning Bid Price: The average winning bid price for onshore wind turbines (excluding towers) in 2024 is 1,464 RMB/kW [2][11]. - Project Approvals: In Q1 2024, 71 wind power projects were approved across 19 provinces, totaling approximately 13.7 GW. In 2023, the total approved capacity was 67.3 GW, a 60.6% increase year-on-year [2][11]. - Installed Capacity: In 2023, the newly installed wind power capacity reached 75.66 GW, marking a 101.1% increase year-on-year, setting a historical record [2][11]. - Market Dynamics: The report suggests that while domestic installations faced constraints in 2023, a recovery is expected in 2024, particularly in offshore wind projects, which are anticipated to see significant growth [2][3]. - Material Prices: The prices of black raw materials have decreased, while epoxy resin prices have slightly increased [2][3]. Key Points on Power Grid - Investment Growth: In May 2024, the total investment in power source projects reached 666 billion RMB, a 13.5% increase year-on-year. For the first five months of 2024, the total investment was 2,578 billion RMB, up 7.9% year-on-year [3]. - Coal Power Capacity: In the first half of 2024, new approved coal power capacity was 11.36 GW, with new construction capacity at 40.78 GW. In 2023, the approved coal power capacity was 66.03 GW, down 23% year-on-year [3]. - High Voltage Projects: The report indicates that 2024-2025 will see a peak in the delivery of power grid equipment, with significant projects like flexible DC high voltage projects expected to commence bidding [3]. - Material Prices: Copper prices have significantly decreased, while other raw material prices have remained stable [3]. Investment Recommendations - Wind Power: Focus on three areas: 1. Leading companies in tower and pile production with high export potential. 2. Leading submarine cable companies with improving export opportunities. 3. Leading turbine manufacturers with stabilizing domestic profits and accelerating exports [4]. - Power Grid: Emphasize four areas: 1. Flexible DC applications enhancing the value of converter stations. 2. Main grid investment orders and deliveries. 3. Export opportunities for power equipment. 4. Upgrading and transforming distribution networks [4]. Risk Factors - Potential risks include significant increases in raw material prices, delays in wind power construction schedules, slower-than-expected approvals for high voltage projects, intensified industry competition, and policy changes [5]. Additional Insights - Market Performance: The wind power sector has seen a general decline in stock prices, with specific segments like complete machines and castings experiencing notable drops [2][3]. - Project Announcements: Recent announcements include significant offshore wind projects and contracts awarded to major players in the industry, indicating ongoing investment and development in the sector [7][8][9][10]. This comprehensive overview captures the essential developments and trends in the wind power and power grid industries, providing insights into investment opportunities and potential risks.