2024-07-03 06:55Financial Data and Key Indicators Changes - In the first half of 2024, the interest rate bond market exhibited a "strong first quarter, stable second quarter" characteristic, with long-term and ultra-long-term interest rates significantly declining in Q1, primarily due to increased allocations by rural commercial banks and fund products, a slowdown in social financing credit growth, and a lack of bond market supply [1][2][3] - The 10-year government bond yield further declined by 25 basis points in Q1, continuing the downward trend from Q4 of the previous year [2] Business Line Data and Key Indicators Changes - The behavior of rural commercial banks has notably changed, as they increased their allocation to long-term interest rate bonds due to asset allocation pressures, marking a shift from their previous strategy of selling bonds when yields fell [10] - Broad funds have seen rapid growth in scale, driven by the expansion of resident deposits and a decrease in high-yield assets, leading to increased allocation pressures [11] Market Data and Key Indicators Changes - The macroeconomic environment is expected to remain stable, with a low likelihood of significant policy adjustments, while external demand has been a key unexpected factor in the first half of the year [4][5] - The overall macroeconomic situation may experience a triple imbalance in supply and demand, internal and external factors, and price and quantity [4] Company Strategy and Development Direction and Industry Competition - The company is focusing on maintaining a stable macroeconomic environment, with a cautious approach to real estate policies that aim to stabilize rather than stimulate economic growth [3][4] - The government is expected to accelerate the issuance of government bonds, which will support social financing and provide a marginal relief effect on the asset side [13] Management's Comments on the Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management indicated that the overall funding environment is expected to remain balanced in the first half of 2024, with the central bank maintaining a stable monetary policy stance [7] - The central bank's operations are aimed at preventing excessive downward pressure on long-term interest rates, with a focus on aligning long-term bond yields with economic growth expectations [21][22] Other Important Information - The government has implemented a series of policies to address high inventory levels in the real estate market, including loan rate relaxations and storage measures [6] - The impact of the storage policy is primarily to alleviate financial pressures on developers and banks, but its effect on actual consumption and investment remains to be seen [6] Q&A Session All Questions and Answers Question: What were the key factors influencing the performance of the interest rate bond market in the first half of 2024? - The performance was influenced by increased allocations from rural commercial banks and fund products, a slowdown in social financing credit growth, and a lack of bond market supply, leading to a significant decline in long-term interest rates [2][3] Question: What factors will determine the bond market's performance in the second half of 2024? - The bond market will be influenced by three persistent factors: weak macroeconomic recovery, stable but non-stimulative real estate policies, and the central bank's control over long-term interest rates [3][4]