：大类资产观察：降息交易或迎关键窗口期

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The non-farm employment numbers have been revised down by 50,000 since 2023, indicating a potential weakening in the labor market [1] - The unemployment rate in the U.S. has risen to 4.1%, the highest level since 2022, suggesting a cooling labor market [54] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The sales of existing homes in the U.S. have dropped to historical lows, while new home prices have started to decline from their peak [2][54] - High interest rates are impacting consumer willingness to take out loans for home purchases, leading to a slowdown in the housing market [54] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The ISM manufacturing PMI fell to 48.5 in June, indicating contraction in the manufacturing sector, while the services PMI also unexpectedly dropped to 48.8 [54] - The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index has decreased significantly, reflecting that recent economic data has been weaker than market expectations [54] Company Strategy and Development Direction and Industry Competition - The company is focusing on navigating the challenges posed by high interest rates and a cooling economy, with an emphasis on maintaining operational efficiency [54] - The fiscal pulse is expected to decline in 2024, which may further impact economic growth and consumer spending [54] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed concerns about the potential for further economic cooling, particularly due to the lagging effects of high interest rates on consumer behavior and capital expenditure plans [54] - The company anticipates that inflation will continue to decline, reducing the likelihood of a second wave of inflation in the near term [54] Other Important Information - The CBO has revised its deficit forecast upwards, with only about $260 billion expected to support actual economic growth, highlighting potential inaccuracies in previous predictions [54] - The excess savings of U.S. households are reported to have been depleted by the first quarter of 2024, which could weaken consumer spending capacity [54] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the outlook for the U.S. economy given the current data? - The economy is expected to cool further, with key data showing signs of non-linear trends that could lead to increased unemployment rates [54] - High interest rates are likely to continue suppressing economic growth, and the impact of monetary tightening may take time to fully materialize [54]