AMERISAFE(US:AMSF)2020-05-03 13:18Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q1 2020, AMERISAFE reported net income of $10.8 million or $0.56 per diluted share, down from $19.4 million or $1.01 per diluted share in Q1 2019 [12] - Operating net income decreased to $16.9 million or $0.88 per share, a decrease of $0.03 from Q1 2019 [12] - Revenues decreased to $79.2 million from $95.2 million in Q1 2019, impacted by $8.8 million in unrealized losses on equity securities [12][13] - The combined ratio for the quarter was 83.5%, with an operating return on average equity of 16.1% [6][19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The ELCM (Expected Loss Cost Multiplier) for the quarter was 157, down from 159 in the previous year [7] - Voluntary policy count decreased by 2.2%, with renewal retention at 92.7% [7] - Premiums for policies written in the quarter were down 5.8%, while average approved loss costs decreased by 6.9% [7] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In April, reported premiums based on March payrolls were approximately 8% lower than expected, indicating the impact of stay-at-home orders [8] - The loss ratio for the quarter was 55.3%, with a current accident year loss ratio of 72.5% [9] - The company experienced $13.6 million of favorable development from prior accident years, primarily due to lower individual claim severities [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - AMERISAFE maintains strong liquidity with no debt, allowing it to focus on providing quality insurance services and paying regular dividends [6] - The company is adapting to the current environment by utilizing virtual safety visits to continue servicing clients [32] - There is a focus on infrastructure projects as a potential stimulus for the economy, which could benefit AMERISAFE's policyholders [29] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges the uncertainties in the workers' compensation market due to the COVID-19 pandemic but believes AMERISAFE is well-positioned [5] - The company has seen minimal impact on losses related to the pandemic in the quarter, with only four COVID-19-related claims reported [9] - Future claim severity may depend on the length of stay-at-home orders and the ability to return injured workers to work [10][24] Other Important Information - The total underwriting and other expenses for the quarter were $21.3 million, up from $20.7 million in Q1 2019, primarily due to higher insurance-related assessments [18] - The tax rate for the quarter was 18.4%, and return on equity was 10% compared to 18.5% in Q1 2019 [19] - Book value per share increased to $22.64, up 1.6% from $22.29 at year-end [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you dimension the lower loss element of this new economy for AMERISAFE? - Management noted lower claim counts and mentioned one severe loss in the quarter compared to 17 claims in the previous year [22] Question: How does the claim profile correlate with economic activity? - Management indicated that if insureds are not working but remain on payroll, it could lead to fewer claims, as new class codes allow for reporting without premium collection [26] Question: Are construction and trucking deemed essential activities? - Management confirmed that trucking has remained active, while construction has been limited in some states like Pennsylvania [28] Question: How has the pre-quote safety inspection process changed? - The company has transitioned to virtual safety visits to continue servicing clients during the pandemic [32] Question: Is there a potential benefit in trucking due to reduced vehicle accidents? - Management acknowledged that fewer vehicles on the road could decrease the chances of motor vehicle accidents, but it is too early to quantify the impact [34] Question: What changes have occurred in the competitive environment? - Pre-COVID, competition remained stable, but there may be a shift as companies consider reallocating capital to different lines of business [36] Question: What is the outlook for small businesses and cancellations? - Management expressed optimism about small businesses accessing stimulus funds and noted no significant uptick in cancellations [40][44]