Chubb(CB) - 2018 Q4 - Earnings Call Transcript

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Core operating income for Q4 2018 was $2.02 per share, totaling $935 million, which included $506 million of after-tax catastrophe (CAT) losses, compared to $1.5 billion income in the previous year that included a tax benefit of $450 million [6][11] - The published P&C combined ratio was 93.1%, including 8.5 points from CATs, while the current accident year combined ratio, excluding CATs, was 88.3% compared to 86.4% in the prior year [7][11] - For the full year, core operating income was $4.4 billion or $9.44 per share, up 18% on a per share basis from 2017, with a core operating ROE of 8.7% [11][12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Premium revenue growth in Q4 was 5.8% in constant dollars, with a published growth of over 4% after accounting for negative FX impact [9] - In North America, commercial P&C pricing improved, with rates up about 2.5% and renewal price change up 4% [14][15] - The North American agriculture business had a full-year combined ratio of 75.5%, remaining stable compared to the prior year [17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - International retail division net premiums written were up 8% in constant dollars, with Asia-Pacific and Latin America growing 10% and 8.5% respectively [18][20] - Rates in the international retail business were up 4%, with property rates increasing by 5% and professional lines by 7% [20] - The London market wholesale business saw net premiums up 12% in constant dollars, indicating a recovery in pricing after previous declines [19] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is optimistic about maintaining premium revenue growth in constant dollars, with expectations of continued improvement in pricing and underwriting conditions [10][22] - Management noted the importance of adapting to market dislocations and opportunities arising from competitors reducing their appetite for certain lines of business [14] - The focus remains on enhancing service and coverage options to maintain competitive advantage in the high net worth market [49][51] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the elevated volatility in short-tail lines but expressed confidence in the underlying strength of the business, attributing recent losses to variability rather than a trend [6][31] - The company expects to see improvements in homeowners' margins later in 2019 as pricing strategies take effect [44] - Management emphasized the need for a long-term view on CAT losses, suggesting that recent elevated losses should not dictate future expectations [33][34] Other Important Information - The company returned $654 million to shareholders in Q4, including $336 million in dividends and $318 million in share repurchases, totaling over $2.3 billion for the year [23][24] - Net realized and unrealized losses for the quarter were $958 million after-tax, with significant impacts from credit spreads and equity market declines [25][26] - The company has reduced dilution on tangible book value per share from 29% to 9% since the Chubb acquisition [26] Q&A Session Summary Question: Variability in Property Losses - Management indicated that the larger property losses were considered one-off events and not indicative of a trend, attributing them to short-term volatility [31] Question: Catastrophe Losses and Future Expectations - Management stated that they manage their portfolio dynamically and use long-term averages to project CAT losses, emphasizing stability over recent elevated years [33] Question: Commercial P&C Pricing vs. Loss Trends - Management does not foresee margin improvement despite the improving rate environment, indicating that loss trends remain stable [38] Question: Impact of New Entrants in High Net Worth Market - Management noted that while new entrants exist, they do not significantly impact the competitive landscape, as retention rates remain strong [49][51] Question: Casualty Line Loss Trends - Management confirmed that loss trends in casualty lines are stable, with no significant changes observed over the past year [79]