Camden(CPT)2023-02-03 23:40Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported funds from operations (FFO) for Q4 2022 of 1.74 per share, a 15% increase per share from Q4 2021 [96] - The expected FFO per share for 2023 is projected to be in the range of 7.00, with a midpoint of 0.26 increase from 2022 results [97] - The company anticipates same-store revenue growth of 5.1% for 2023, down from the record 11.2% growth in 2022 [63][84] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Same-property revenue growth was 9.9% for Q4 2022 and 11.2% for the full year 2022, with nine markets exceeding 10% revenue growth for the quarter [118] - The company expects same-store expense growth of 5.5% in 2023, driven primarily by increases in property taxes and insurance [15][122] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Occupancy averaged 95.8% during Q4 2022, down from 96.6% in the previous quarter and 97.1% in Q4 2021 [71] - The company projects a 100-basis-point decline in economic occupancy due to increased supply, leading to a 5.5% rental income growth forecast for 2023 [48][148] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to maintain a balanced approach with 250 million in dispositions, expecting no net accretion or dilution [16][151] - The company is focusing on markets with strong demand, particularly in Florida, while being cautious about markets like Houston and LA due to varying economic conditions [64][117] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about continued demand for apartments in 2023, citing high mortgage rates and consumer reluctance to transition to homeownership [65][83] - The macroeconomic environment remains uncertain, with potential job growth or losses being a wildcard for the year [88] Other Important Information - The company noted that rental rates for Q4 had signed new leases up 4% and renewals up 8.4%, indicating a blended rate of 6.1% [94] - The company highlighted a significant increase in insurance expenses due to global losses, projecting a 12.5% increase in insurance costs [49] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the outlook for blended spreads and concessions? - Management indicated they do not expect new leases to go negative in the next six to nine months, despite a significant negative second derivative on growth [40][41] Question: What is the outlook for Houston and LA markets? - Management noted that Houston's outlook is improving due to energy sector strength, while LA remains stable but cautious due to higher delinquencies [117][70] Question: How does the company view the transaction market? - Management acknowledged a wide bid-ask spread in the transaction market, indicating a standoff until buyers and sellers adjust their valuation expectations [81][154]