对话产业大佬 ：PCB和IC载板近况

Key Points Industry Overview 1. PCB Industry in 2023: The PCB industry experienced a challenging yet opportunistic year in 2023. Despite a decline in global PCB sales, growth in specific areas like AI servers and HDI high-density interconnect boards stood out. Competition was intense, particularly in the automotive PCB sector, while the widespread adoption of 5G smartphones was expected to drive market demand recovery in the coming years. The rise of personal computers and high-end servers presented potential opportunities for the PCB industry, especially for mainland manufacturers actively entering the AIPC field and seeking growth in the server market, particularly in AI computing. However, challenges remained in the high-end PCB market, including material procurement and production lines, despite the strong potential of the AI server market. Overall, the PCB industry was expected to achieve significant expansion in the coming years, driven by the growing demand for high-speed network communication PCB boards. [1] 2. Market Dynamics: The PCB industry in 2023 was relatively flat, with global PCB sales decreasing slightly. However, growth in areas such as AI servers and HDI high-density interconnect boards became highlights. Competition was intense, especially in the automotive PCB sector, while the widespread adoption of 5G smartphones was expected to drive market demand recovery in the coming years. [1] 3. Growth Drivers: The rise of AIPC and the growing demand for high-end servers presented significant opportunities for the PCB industry. Mainland manufacturers, such as Shenghong Electronics and Guanghe, were actively exploring the AIPC field, while the rapid growth in server demand, particularly in AI computing, offered major development opportunities for PCB manufacturers. [2] Market Segments 4. AI Server Market: The AI server market was experiencing strong growth, with NVIDIA's server production running at full capacity and sales expected to reach $2 billion to$4 billion. The BT whiteboard market decreased by 16% due to intense competition, and domestic substitution was expected to take two to three years. [2] 5. High-End PCB Market: The high-end PCB market, particularly in the laser module field, was experiencing a shortage of supply due to high technical barriers. A few companies with technical advantages dominated the market, and orders were expected to continue until 2025. [3] 6. M3F Technical Board Market: There were very few domestic manufacturers of M3F technical boards due to a lack of production lines, experience, and reliance on imported equipment. This led to a high concentration of demand for eight-generation laser modules in a few manufacturers, and the production of such high-end products involved high risks and challenges. [4] 7. ABF Substrate Market: The ABF substrate market was currently dominated by Korean, Taiwanese, and Japanese companies, and mainland China faced challenges in material procurement. Although several domestic companies were developing ABF films, it was difficult to produce high-end products on a large scale in the short term. [5] Company Performance 8. Huawei: Huawei's demand for PCBs was driving the high-end PCB market, and the tight capacity led to price increases. [3] 9. NVIDIA: NVIDIA's server production was running at full capacity, with sales expected to reach $2 billion to$4 billion. [2] 10. Shanghai Huali: Shanghai Huali, with its strong production capacity, HDI technology, and battlefield capabilities, particularly in AI-related product areas, achieved excellent performance throughout the year. [7] Future Outlook 11. AIPC Market: It was expected that mainland PCB manufacturers would face significant opportunities in the AIPC market by 2025 or 2026, particularly for those old brands that had long focused on desktop motherboard manufacturing. [8] 12. 800G/1.6T High-End Switch Market: The 800G/1.6T high-end switch market was expected to heat up rapidly and become a future competitive focus. These switches required a high number of PCB layers, such as 28 to 40 layers, and companies with rich experience and production capacity, such as Shanghai Huali and Huali Electronics, would occupy an important position in the market. [11]