Industry/Company Involved * Industry: China's economy, labor market, fiscal policy, monetary policy * Company: Not specified, general analysis of the Chinese economy Core Views and Arguments 1. Deterioration in China Social Dynamics Indicator (SDI): The SDI has deteriorated but has not reached previous policy pivot thresholds. This suggests that policy changes may be on the horizon. * [2] 2. Rapid Deterioration in Labor Market: Unemployment rate has increased at an abnormally fast pace since May, indicating a weakening labor market. * [4] 3. Weakening Labor Market Sentiment: Sentiment has weakened significantly, further indicating a struggling labor market. * [5] 4. Downward Pressure on Wage Growth: Wage growth is facing further downward pressure as corporate profits decline, particularly affecting the bottom 20% of earners. * [7] 5. Rising Social Risk: Household living standards have deteriorated at the margin, and the number of labor incidents has increased, indicating rising social risk. * [9], [10] 6. Pro-Cyclical Fiscal Policy: Fiscal policy may remain pro-cyclical in the near term, with on-budget fiscal rollout catching up but overall augmented fiscal deficit remaining plateaued. * [11] 7. Potential Policy Pivot Points: The document outlines several potential policy pivot points, including the NPC Standing Committee meeting in late October 2024, the possibility of a supplementary budget, and the Politburo economic meeting in early December 2024. * [2] 8. Potential Policy Initiatives: The document suggests potential policy initiatives, such as expanding the consumer goods trade-in program, providing welfare with fiscal policy, and shoring up the housing market. * [2] 9. Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 10. Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 11. Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 12. Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 13. Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 14. Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 15. Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 16. Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 17. Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 18. Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 19. Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 20. Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 21. Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 22. Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 23. Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 24. Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 25. Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 26. Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 27. Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 28. Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 29. Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 30. Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 31. Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 32. Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 33. Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 34. Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 35. Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 36. Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 37. Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 38. Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 39. Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 40. Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 41. Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 42. Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 43. Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 44. Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 45. Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 46. Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 47. Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 48. Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 49. Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 50. Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 51. Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 52. Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 53. Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 54. Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 55. Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 56. Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 57. Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 58. Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 59. Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 60. Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 61. Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 62. Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 63. Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 64. Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 65. Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 66. Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 67. Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 68. Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 69. Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 70. Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 71. Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 72. Potential Policy Pivot Towards Housing and Social Welfare: The Politburo meeting and CEWC in December 2024 may offer the first hint on policy pivot toward more orderly housing/LGFV deleveraging and social welfare reforms, with central budget expansion. * [2] 73. **
Investor Presentation_ Social Dynamics Indicator and Policy Tipping Point
standard chartered·2024-09-26 16:38