中国互联网行业对中国数字娱乐公司的最新看法；Bilibili 是我们的首选。pdf

Summary of Conference Call on China Internet Sector Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the China Internet Sector, specifically discussing companies like Bilibili, NetEase, and iQiyi [1][4]. Key Company Insights Bilibili (BILI) - Performance: Bilibili's share price increased by 11% in September 2024, outperforming the KWEB index which rose by 6% [1]. - Game Success: The mobile game 'Sanmou' has shown strong momentum, entering Season 3 on September 21, 2024, and achieving a rise in iOS top grossing rank from No.17 to No.2 on the same day [1]. - Revenue Estimates: Expected cash grossing for 'Sanmou' in 3Q24 is estimated at Rmb1.5 billion, indicating potential upside to the consensus estimate of Rmb1.6 billion [1]. - Future Growth: Anticipated growth in 4Q24 game revenue due to higher deferral revenue from 'Sanmou', contrary to consensus expectations of a 5% QoQ decline [1]. - Advertising Growth: Positive outlook for advertising demand with expected 27% YoY growth in 3Q24 and 25% YoY growth in 4Q24 driven by online game advertisers and eCommerce platforms [1]. - Upcoming Catalysts: The upcoming 3Q24 results and the launch of a new game based on the popular Japanese comic 'Jujutsu Kaisen' are seen as potential catalysts for further growth [1]. NetEase (NTES) - Mixed Performance: NetEase's mobile game performance in 3Q24 is expected to be mixed, with some games like 'FWJ Mobile' and 'Identity V' trending upwards, while others are declining [4]. - Revenue Outlook: Projected YoY decline of 2% in mobile game revenue for 3Q24 against a high base from 3Q23 [4]. - PC Game Growth: Anticipated 13% YoY growth in PC game revenue, driven by major updates and launches, leading to an overall 1% YoY growth in game revenue for 3Q24 [4]. - Valuation: NetEase trades at 11x 2024E P/E, suggesting that the weak revenue outlook is already reflected in the stock price [4]. - Investor Sentiment: Investors are cautious about near-term stock performance due to a lack of game catalysts and muted revenue growth expectations [5]. iQiyi - Neutral Rating: iQiyi has been assigned a Neutral rating due to the absence of new blockbuster dramas to boost subscription revenue and increasing competition from Tencent Video and Youku [1]. Investor Feedback - Investors are generally positive about Bilibili's advertising momentum and margin expansion, with concerns about the sustainability of 'Sanmou' and the timing of new game launches [2]. - NetEase faces skepticism regarding its game revenue growth, with some investors expecting negative YoY growth in the upcoming quarters [5]. Additional Insights - The report highlights the importance of upcoming game launches and macroeconomic conditions on advertising revenue, which could impact both Bilibili and NetEase [2][5]. - The overall sentiment in the sector reflects cautious optimism, with a focus on game performance and advertising demand as key drivers for future growth [2][5].