将我们的S&PEPS增长预测提高至11%，并将我们的12个月指数目标提高至6300

Summary of Goldman Sachs US Equity Views Company/Industry Involved - S&P 500 Index Core Points and Arguments - EPS Forecasts: The 2025 S&P 500 EPS forecast has been raised to $268, reflecting an 11% year-over-year increase, up from a previous estimate of $256 (6% increase). A new 2026 EPS estimate of $288 (7% increase) has also been introduced. The full-year 2024 EPS forecast remains at $241 (8% increase) [2][8][10] - Market Capitalization Assumptions: The market is expected to capitalize earnings of $274 for 2025 and $300 for 2026, indicating negative revisions to bottom-up analyst consensus estimates [2][10] - P/E Multiples: The current P/E multiple of 22x aligns with the macro model of fair value. The forecast for the P/E is expected to remain unchanged at year-end 2024, with a target index of 6000 (up from 5600) and a 12-month target of 6300 (up from 6000), suggesting potential upside of 4% and 10%, respectively [2][10][22] - Sector Performance: Information Technology is projected to have a 17% EPS growth, while Energy is expected to decline by 25%. The overall S&P 500 is forecasted to grow by 4% [9][10] - Analyst Consensus: The revised EPS estimates are above top-down consensus estimates but below bottom-up consensus estimates, indicating a potential over-optimism in bottom-up analyst forecasts [10][12] Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - Margin Expansion: The upward revision in the 2025 EPS estimate is primarily driven by greater margin expansion, with expected sales growth of 5% and net margin expansion of 78 basis points [11][12] - Micro Drivers of Margin Growth: Specific charges affecting S&P 500 margins in 2024 are expected to moderate in 2025, contributing to margin expansion. Notable examples include reduced in-process R&D charges in the Health Care sector and non-recurring charges from companies like WBD and UBER [13][16] - Semiconductor Recovery: The Information Technology sector's EPS estimate has been upgraded due to a recovery in the semiconductor cycle, with a significant portion of EPS growth attributed to this sector [16][17] - Economic Growth Projections: Goldman Sachs economists forecast real US GDP growth of 2.3% in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026, which is a key variable in the earnings model [11][12] - Valuation Sensitivity: The report discusses potential upside and downside risks to the forecast, indicating that if the P/E multiple remains at 22x, the S&P 500 could trade at 6600 (+15% upside), while a decline in growth prospects could lead to a drop to 5400 (-6% downside) [24][26] This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections from the Goldman Sachs US Equity Views report, focusing on the S&P 500 index and its expected performance in the coming years.