德意志银行：太阳能展望_投资者最关心的问题 + 3Q24 打印快照

Industry and Company Overview * Industry: Solar Outlook, Clean Technology * Region: North America, United States * Date: 7 October 2024 Key Topics 1. US Presidential Elections and Solar Sector: The upcoming US presidential elections are a pivotal moment for the solar sector. A Democratic victory is seen as positive, with minimal risks to residential demand and incentives. A Republican win could lead to the fading/removal of incentives and dampen sentiment. 2. Residential Demand Trends: Demand in the US is stable, with California recovering post NEM 3.0. Southern states are performing well. Europe's demand is lagging, down ~10%+ YoY. 3. Inverters Update: Under shipments are expected to be fully done for ENPH in 3Q24. SolarEdge faces challenges in Europe, but US under shipments should clear after 3Q. 4. Macro Environment: Interest rates are coming down, benefiting residential solar companies and the market. 5. Equity Ratings: Buy-rated First Solar (PT $280), Hold rated on ENPH, SEDG, RUN, and NOVA. Company-Specific Updates * First Solar (FSLR): Expected to report 3Q24 results on October 29. Revenue forecasted at $1.09bn, with ASP of 28c/w and shipments of 3.90GW. Costs forecasted at $113m, leading to operating income of $385m and net income of $356m. * Enphase Energy (ENPH): Expected to report 3Q24 results on October 22. Revenue forecasted at $387m, with GAAP net income of $52m and GAAP EPS of 38c. * SolarEdge (SEDG): Expected to report 3Q24 results on October 30. Revenue forecasted at $274m, with GAAP gross margin of negative 2%. * Sunrun (RUN): Expected to report 3Q24 results on October 30. Revenue forecasted at $559mm, with cash generation of negative $4m. * Sunnova (NOVA): Expected to report 3Q24 results on October 30. Revenue forecasted at $241m, with adj. EBITDA of $209m. Additional Information * The report includes graphs and charts on solar power generation, energy costs, and company financials. * The report also includes important disclosures and analyst certifications.