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德意志银行：太阳能展望_投资者最关心的问题 + 3Q24 打印快照
000591TYN(000591) 德意志银行·2024-10-11 14:13

Industry and Company Overview * Industry: Solar Outlook, Clean Technology * Region: North America, United States * Date: 7 October 2024 Key Topics 1. US Presidential Elections and Solar Sector: The upcoming US presidential elections are a pivotal moment for the solar sector. A Democratic victory is seen as positive, with minimal risks to residential demand and incentives. A Republican win could lead to the fading/removal of incentives and dampen sentiment. 2. Residential Demand Trends: Demand in the US is stable, with California recovering post NEM 3.0. Southern states are performing well. Europe's demand is lagging, down ~10%+ YoY. 3. Inverters Update: Under shipments are expected to be fully done for ENPH in 3Q24. SolarEdge faces challenges in Europe, but US under shipments should clear after 3Q. 4. Macro Environment: Interest rates are coming down, benefiting residential solar companies and the market. 5. Equity Ratings: Buy-rated First Solar (PT 280),HoldratedonENPH,SEDG,RUN,andNOVA.Company−SpecificUpdates∗∗∗FirstSolar(FSLR)∗∗:Expectedtoreport3Q24resultsonOctober29.Revenueforecastedat280), Hold rated on ENPH, SEDG, RUN, and NOVA. Company-Specific Updates * **First Solar (FSLR)**: Expected to report 3Q24 results on October 29. Revenue forecasted at 1.09bn, with ASP of 28c/w and shipments of 3.90GW. Costs forecasted at 113m,leadingtooperatingincomeof113m, leading to operating income of 385m and net income of 356m.∗∗∗EnphaseEnergy(ENPH)∗∗:Expectedtoreport3Q24resultsonOctober22.Revenueforecastedat356m. * **Enphase Energy (ENPH)**: Expected to report 3Q24 results on October 22. Revenue forecasted at 387m, with GAAP net income of 52mandGAAPEPSof38c.∗∗∗SolarEdge(SEDG)∗∗:Expectedtoreport3Q24resultsonOctober30.Revenueforecastedat52m and GAAP EPS of 38c. * **SolarEdge (SEDG)**: Expected to report 3Q24 results on October 30. Revenue forecasted at 274m, with GAAP gross margin of negative 2%. * Sunrun (RUN): Expected to report 3Q24 results on October 30. Revenue forecasted at 559mm,withcashgenerationofnegative559mm, with cash generation of negative 4m. * Sunnova (NOVA): Expected to report 3Q24 results on October 30. Revenue forecasted at 241m,withadj.EBITDAof241m, with adj. EBITDA of 209m. Additional Information * The report includes graphs and charts on solar power generation, energy costs, and company financials. * The report also includes important disclosures and analyst certifications.