德意志银行：中国自动化市场月度追踪 — 9 月增长进一步放缓；展望 3Q

Financial Data and Key Metrics - Automation order/sales YoY growth for September remained subdued, showing slight further deceleration compared to August [3] - New energy market decline could narrow from October as the base for new energy demand softened materially in 4Q23 [4] - Yizumi and Haitian International reported healthy order growth in September, with overseas orders growing faster than domestic orders [5] - Inovance suffered a -3% YoY order decline in September, while Airtac posted a -5% sales decline due to fewer working days [5] - Hiwin's YoY sales growth returned to flat in September after declines YTD, benefiting from a low base [5] - Yaskawa's Motion Control sales in China remained at -10% YoY in CNY terms in September [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics - Traditional end-markets (textile, packaging, machine tool, and electronics) grew positively, while the new energy (solar and battery) market remained in contraction [4] - Plastic injection molding machine OEMs (Haitian and Yizumi) continued to see healthy orders at 20-30% YoY in September [5] - Estun delivered +10% growth for its domestic orders, driven by electronics, automotive, and metal processing [17] - Airtac experienced sales growth from electronics, textile and clothing, machine tool, and automotive markets, despite a -5% YoY sales decline in September [18] - Hiwin's order visibility is currently 2-3 months, with gradual improvement in orders since November 2023 driven by semiconductor, automation, aerospace, infrastructure, machine tools, and NEV demand [19] Market Data and Key Metrics - China's Manufacturing PMI in September was 49.8, indicating a slight contraction in the manufacturing sector [31] - China's PPI decline widened to -1.8% YoY in August, reflecting ongoing deflationary pressures in the manufacturing sector [31] - Yaskawa's Motion Control sales in China declined -10% YoY and -7% MoM in CNY terms in September [20] - ABB's inverter sales in China declined -23% YoY but improved +69% MoM in CNY terms, with low-voltage inverter orders soft at -5% YoY in 9M24 [21] Company Strategy and Industry Competition - Inovance expects better order growth in 4Q24 as the base for new energy becomes lower, with comps expected to be lower from November onwards [14] - HCFA believes order decline could narrow from October onwards, as the base for new energy (especially solar) becomes lower [15] - Haitian International reported 30%+ YoY order growth in 3Q24, with domestic orders growing +20% YoY and overseas orders growing 50%+ [16] - Hiwin expects sales to be similar to the 3Q level in 4Q, suggesting a -1% YoY sales decline for 2024, slightly worse than the positive sales growth guidance [19] Management Commentary on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management of Inovance expects better order growth in 4Q24 due to a lower base for new energy [14] - HCFA management believes order decline could narrow from October onwards as the base for new energy becomes lower [15] - Airtac acknowledges that shipments in 3Q24 were lower than expectations but still expects 4Q24 to be better than 3Q24 [18] - Hiwin management expects sales to be similar to the 3Q level in 4Q, with gradual improvement in orders driven by various end-markets [19] Other Important Information - The China automation market continues to show disparate growth between traditional and new energy end-markets, with traditional markets outperforming since 2H23 [13] - The global industrial automation sector faces headwinds from soft global manufacturing PMIs and FX movements, particularly for Japanese names [8] - Taiwanese names like Airtac and Hiwin reported disappointing 3Q24 sales declines of -2.4% and -3.5%, respectively, with concerns over Hiwin's expensive valuation and intensifying competition in China [9] Summary of Q&A Session - No specific Q&A session details were provided in the document