10-15封测调研：Q4稼动率上升，2.5D、3D产能更新，资本开支，下游景气度展望-聚焦长电、通富、华天、甬矽、伟测、沛顿、长鑫(1)

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the semiconductor packaging and testing industry, specifically focusing on traditional and advanced packaging processes [1][2][4]. Key Points and Arguments Utilization Rates - Traditional packaging utilization rates have declined from approximately 80% in Q2 to 70-80% currently, with expectations to recover to around 80% by Q4 based on customer forecasts [1][2]. - Advanced packaging utilization remains strong at over 80%, with some facilities in mainland China operating above 90% due to limited supply [1][2]. - Major companies' utilization rates include: - Changdian Technology: Traditional packaging ~80%, Advanced packaging >85% - Huatian Technology: Varies by location, with some plants at 70% and others at 90% - Tongfu Microelectronics: Traditional packaging 75-80%, Advanced packaging ~85% [2][4]. Inventory Levels - Customer inventory levels have increased by about one month due to a recovery in consumer demand, but overall levels remain below healthy thresholds, which were previously around six months [1][2]. - Different product categories exhibit varying inventory levels, with analog and storage products showing higher inventory compared to traditional low-end products [2][4]. Market Outlook - The industrial and automation sectors are currently experiencing poor market conditions, with recovery expected only by Q2-Q3 of next year. In contrast, the consumer sector is showing signs of improvement, particularly in wearables and smartphones [2][4]. - The computing sector is performing well, with domestic manufacturers like Loongson and Feiteng actively seeking OSAT services, achieving utilization rates above 90% [2][4]. Pricing Trends - Overall packaging prices have decreased by approximately 15% since 2022, with expectations for a price increase in Q4 2024 or Q1 2025 as OSAT companies negotiate with design firms [2][3][4]. Capital Expenditure Plans - Major OSAT companies are shifting their capital expenditure focus towards advanced packaging, with expected growth of around 20% in this segment for Changdian Technology [4]. - Domestic companies like Tongfu and Shenghe are ramping up production capabilities for advanced packaging, with specific monthly production targets set [4]. Competitive Landscape - Changdian Technology's market share is declining due to management issues, while Tongfu Microelectronics is gaining ground, particularly with significant contributions from major clients like AMD [4][5]. - The trend of design companies establishing their own packaging facilities (Fab-Lite model) may disrupt traditional OSAT business models, although this transition will take 2-3 years for smaller firms to achieve adequate production capabilities [6]. Testing Capacity - Testing services are performing better than packaging, with overall testing utilization around 80% and digital circuit testing at 90% [6]. Future Projections - The OSAT industry is expected to stabilize over the next 1-2 years, with a more balanced supply chain emerging as domestic manufacturers continue to capture market share from Taiwanese firms [9]. Additional Important Insights - The advanced packaging segment is currently in a supply-demand imbalance, with limited certified OSAT providers in mainland China [8]. - The transition from traditional packaging methods to advanced solutions like Fan-out is gaining traction among design companies, indicating a shift in industry practices [8].