Asia_Pacific Weekly Economic Preview_ Central Banks in Action; China in Focus

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Central Banks: Four central banks are expected to meet, with two likely to ease monetary policy. The Bank Indonesia (BI) and Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) are anticipated to continue their rate cut cycles with a second 25 basis point (bp) cut, while the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) and Bank of Thailand (BOT) are expected to maintain their current rates [2][12][17]. Economic Data Insights Australia - Labour Market: Jobs growth is expected to be slightly weaker in September, with an increase of 30,000 jobs, keeping the unemployment rate stable at 4.2%. The participation rate is projected to be 67% [5][6]. China - Credit Growth: Broad credit growth may have decreased by 10 bps to 8.5% year-on-year (YoY). Total social financing reached RMB 4,200 billion, driven by strong government bond issuance. However, bank loans may have slipped by 30 bps to 8.2% YoY due to sluggish property market transactions and weakened consumer credit demand [6][8]. - Trade Data: Nominal export growth is expected to soften to 6% YoY in September, down from 8.7% in August, reflecting a softening global manufacturing cycle. Import growth is projected to remain subdued at 1% [7]. - GDP Growth: Real GDP growth is expected to soften to 4.4% in 3Q24 from 4.7% in 2Q24, with industrial production growth falling to 4.6% YoY [8][9]. - Retail Sales: Nominal retail sales growth is expected to pick up to 2.8% YoY in September, supported by a consumer goods trade-in program [10]. India - Inflation: Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation is expected to rise to 4.9% YoY in September from 3.7% in August, driven by increases in food and core inflation [11]. Indonesia - Monetary Policy: The BI is expected to cut rates by 25 bps, continuing its easing cycle amid sluggish economic growth and decelerating inflation [12]. Japan - Machinery Orders: Machinery orders are forecasted to increase by 0.5% month-on-month (MoM) in August [13]. Philippines - Monetary Policy: The BSP is expected to cut rates by another 25 bps, continuing its monetary easing cycle due to decelerating inflation [15]. Singapore - Monetary Policy: The MAS is expected to maintain its current policy parameters, with no immediate easing anticipated unless clear signs of a global recession emerge [16]. Thailand - Monetary Policy: The BOT is expected to hold rates steady, despite calls for cuts to support the economy and competitiveness amid a strong baht [17]. Additional Insights - Global Manufacturing: The global manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) has declined for three consecutive months, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing activity [7]. - Investment Trends: There is a noted concern regarding the impact of weaker external demand on corporate capital expenditures, particularly in the manufacturing sector [9]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the economic outlook and monetary policy expectations across various countries in the Asia-Pacific region.