Key Points 1. RIO - Arcadium Lithium Deal - Company: Rio Tinto - Deal: Acquisition of 100% of Arcadium Lithium for US6.7bn (EV) - Strategy: Expand RIO's lithium production and establish it as a top 3 global producer - Valuation: 20x 2025E EV/EBITDA, dropping to 7-8x in 2028E - Post-Acquisition: RIO's net debt to increase to ~20bn in capex will depress cash flows [11] - Global Survey Results: less conviction in the global energy transition [11] - Commodities Outlook: Reality check; a pause before further gains [11] - FM: Hedged copper play with significant upside potential: upgrade to Buy [11] - Rio Tinto: Could the Jadar lithium project be coming back to life? [11] 9. Reporting Calendar & Earnings Snapshot - Upcoming Results: Boliden, First Quantum, Lundin Mining, Norsk Hydro, Teck Resources, Freeport [14] 10. Sector Valuation Snapshot - European Mining: Composite valuation at a 8% discount to trend levels [16] 11. European Mining Valuations - Diversified Miners: Anglo American, Glencore, Rio Tinto, BHP, Vale [18] 12. Commodity & FX Trends - Base Metals: Aluminium, Cobalt, Copper, Nickel, Zinc [21] - Precious Metals: Gold, Palladium, Platinum, Silver [21] - Energy: Thermal Coal, South Africa Coal, Brent Oil, European natural gas [21] - Bulk Commodities: Iron ore fines, Coking coal, Alumina spot [21] - Currencies: USD vs key currencies [22] 13. Decarbonisation Ranking and Metrics - Diversified Miners: AAL, GLEN, RIO, BHP, VALE [29] - Base Metal Miners: ANTO, BOL, FCX, FM, LUN, NHY, TECK [29] 14. Balance Sheets and Performance - Capital Expenditure: Sector capital expenditure progression [34] - Net Debt: Sector net debt progression [34] - Net Debt to EBITDA: 2025E net debt to EBITDA [34] - Dividend and Buyback Yield: 2025E dividend and buyback yield [34] 15. Key FX and Raw Material Opex Drivers - DB Cost Index: Yearly and weekly changes in key opex drivers [35] 16. Share Price Performance - Global Share Price Performance: Performance of diversified large caps and mid caps [42] 17. Additional Information - Important Disclosures: Conflicts of interest, data sources, and other important information [44] - Analyst Certification: Personal views of the lead analyst [45] - Equity Rating Dispersion and Banking Relationships: Equity rating dispersion chart and banking relationships [46] - Additional Information: Information and opinions in the report, conflicts of interest, and other important information [49-55] - Deutsche Bank Research Department: Organizational arrangements and information barriers [56] - Macroeconomic Fluctuations: Risks associated with fixed-rate instruments [57] - Derivative Transactions: Risks associated with derivative transactions [58] - Foreign Exchange Transactions: Risks associated with foreign exchange transactions [59] - Additional Information: Additional information relative to securities, other financial products, or issuers discussed in the report [74] - Backtested, Hypothetical, or Simulated Performance: Limitations of backtested, hypothetical, or simulated performance results [75] - ESG Scores: Methodology and limitations of ESG scores [76] - Copyright: Copyright information [77] - Research Contacts: Contact information for various research departments and locations [78]
德意志银行：金属和矿业_ RIO - Arcadium Lithium 交易。中国宏观。第三季度预览。最新估值
德意志银行·2024-10-19 02:35