德意志银行：Meta_ 3Q24 预览 - Room to Run

Company and Industry * Company: Meta Platforms, Inc. (META.OQ, NAS META) * Industry: Internet, Social Media, Advertising Key Points and Evidence 1. Rating and Price Target: Deutsche Bank maintains a 'Buy' rating on Meta with a target price of $650, based on a 26x multiple of 2025E GAAP EPS of$24.98. 2. 3Q24E Revenue Estimate: Deutsche Bank estimates 3Q24E revenue at $40.4 billion, up 18$46.8 billion, up 17% y/y, with a 22% y/y OI margin. 4. 5Q24E Revenue Estimate: Deutsche Bank models 15.5% y/y FXN growth for 4Q24E, implying 16% q/q revenue growth. 5. CapEx Outlook: Deutsche Bank raises its CapEx outlook to $51 billion for FY25, up from$48 billion previously. 6. Valuation Multiple: Deutsche Bank raises its valuation multiple to account for incremental AI-related revenue streams and potential slowing RL losses in FY25. 7. Ad Spend: Meta continues to gain share as the highest ROI platform in Social for advertisers, driven by ongoing engagement growth, resilient pricing, and increasing revenue contributions from new surfaces. 8. AI Investments: Meta's AI investments are driving enhanced performance, leading to a contracting cost per action and durable ad wallet share gains. 9. Risks: Risks include future privacy changes, growing competition for users' time, and deterioration of the macro environment in 2024. Additional Important Content * 3Q24E Revenue Breakdown: Advertising revenue is expected to be the largest contributor, followed by Other revenue and Reality Labs. * OI Margin Breakdown: Family of Apps is expected to have the highest OI margin, followed by Reality Labs. * Net Income Breakdown: Net income is expected to be the highest in 4Q24E, followed by 3Q24E and 2Q24E. * EPS Breakdown: Diluted EPS is expected to be the highest in 4Q24E, followed by 3Q24E and 2Q24E. * Target Price Changes: Deutsche Bank has increased its target price from $585 to$650 based on the updated outlook and valuation multiple.