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德意志银行：福耀玻璃_第三季度业绩超预期 – 季度毛利率创四年新高
600660FYG,FUYAO GLASS(600660) 德意志银行·2024-10-21 15:22

Company and Industry * Company: Fuyao * Industry: Autos & Auto Technology Key Points and Arguments 1. 3Q Results Beat Expectations: Fuyao's aggregate reported net profit for the first three quarters of 2024 increased by 33% YoY to RMB5.48bn, exceeding market expectations. 3Q 2024 reported net profit jumped by 54% YoY to RMB1.98bn, driven by record-high revenue of RMB9.97bn and a four-year-high quarterly gross margin of 38.8% [2]. 2. Gross Profit Growth: 3Q gross profit rose by 21% YoY and 8% QoQ to RMB3.87bn, the company's highest quarterly gross profit since inception. This growth is attributed to decent revenue growth and an expanding gross margin [4]. 3. Improving Gross Margin: Gross margin improvement is attributed to falling raw material prices, including sodium carbonate and external sourcing of float glass, as well as a potential improvement in product mix [4]. 4. Valuation: The target price of HK71.00isderivedviaadiscountedcashflow(DCF)analysis,consideringthefullmaturationofChina′sautoindustrytrends–electrificationandintelligentization.Thisimpliesa24.6x2024EP/E,apremiumtoFuyao′saverage16.9x12−monthforwardP/Eoverthepastfiveyears[5].5.∗∗Risks∗∗:Keydownsiderisksincludeweaker−than−expectedforeignsalesvolumeduetoanexitonfavorablenewenergyvehiclepoliciesinEuropeandlower−than−expectedmarginsduetoslower−than−expectedproductmiximprovement[7].OtherImportantContent∗∗∗Rating∗∗:Buy[1]∗∗∗PriceTarget∗∗:HK71.00 is derived via a discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis, considering the full maturation of China's auto industry trends – electrification and intelligentization. This implies a 24.6x 2024E P/E, a premium to Fuyao's average 16.9x 12-month forward P/E over the past five years [5]. 5. **Risks**: Key downside risks include weaker-than-expected foreign sales volume due to an exit on favorable new energy vehicle policies in Europe and lower-than-expected margins due to slower-than-expected product mix improvement [7]. Other Important Content * **Rating**: Buy [1] * **Price Target**: HK71.00 [3] * Analyst Certifications: Bin Wang, Laura Li, Edison Yu [10] * Equity Rating Dispersion: The Equity Rating Dispersion Chart shows the proportion of recommendations that are rated "buy", "sell", and "hold" over the previous 12 months [13] * Additional Information: The report includes various disclosures and certifications regarding the research process and potential conflicts of interest [16-22]