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Investor Presentation_ Semiconductor Production Equipment_ Doko Shuzai Supplement_ Disco (6146)
standard chartered·2024-10-23 16:34

Summary of Semiconductor Production Equipment Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: Semiconductor Production Equipment - Market View: Attractive [2] Company Focus: Disco (6146) Sales and Shipments - Q1 FY25: Shipments of ¥101.1 billion, Sales of ¥82.7 billion - Q2 FY25 Estimate: Shipments of ¥100.9 billion, Sales of ¥85.6 billion - Q2 FY25 Actual: Shipments of ¥97.6 billion, Sales of ¥96.2 billion - Q3 FY25 Estimate: Shipments of ¥99.2 billion, Sales of ¥83.9 billion - Sales Breakdown: - Q1 FY25: Memory 32%, OSAT 28%, Power Si 5%, Power SiC 15%, Other 20% [3] - Q2 FY25: Memory 37%, OSAT 25%, Power 25%, Other 13% [3] Gross Profit Margin Trends - GP Margin: Trends show fluctuations from 55% to 75% across various quarters from FY19 to FY25 [25] Market Share - Grinder Market: Disco holds 82% of the global market share, with Tokyo Seimitsu at 12% and Okamoto at 6% [20] - Dicer Market: Disco has a 75% share, while Tokyo Seimitsu holds 14% [23] Technology and Production Insights HBM Production Capacity - HBM Roadmap: Details on die density, capacity, and bandwidth per stack for various HBM generations [7] - Current Trends: Focus on increasing memory bandwidth and production efficiency [10] Semiconductor Stacking Techniques - Techniques: CoC, CoW, and WoW methods discussed, highlighting their bonding accuracy, throughput, and yield [13] Business Opportunities - Future Growth: Anticipated growth in HBM and 3D-NAND markets, with Disco positioned favorably in grinder and wafer bonding markets [14][15] Valuation and Risks Valuation Methodology - Target P/E Ratio: 25.1x based on historical performance [27] Risks - Upside Risks: Growth in SiC equipment, recovery in smartphone and semiconductor markets [28] - Downside Risks: Sluggish global demand for electronics, longer replacement cycles for smartphones, and potential commoditization of SPEs [29] Conclusion - Investment Recommendation: Disco is rated as Overweight with a target price reflecting strong future earnings potential [49]