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MaxLinear(MXL) - 2024 Q3 - Earnings Call Transcript
MXLMaxLinear(MXL)2024-10-24 00:59

Financial Data and Key Metrics - Q3 2024 revenue was 81.1million,slightlyabovethemidpointofguidance,withanonGAAPgrossmarginof58.781.1 million, slightly above the midpoint of guidance, with a non-GAAP gross margin of 58.7% [5] - Total revenue for Q3 2024 was 81.1 million, down 12% from 92millioninthepreviousquarter[12]BroadbandrevenueforQ3was92 million in the previous quarter [12] - Broadband revenue for Q3 was 32 million, connectivity revenue was 13million,infrastructurerevenuewas13 million, infrastructure revenue was 23 million, and industrial multi-market revenue was 13million[12]GAAPandnonGAAPgrossmarginforQ3wereapproximately54.413 million [12] - GAAP and non-GAAP gross margin for Q3 were approximately 54.4% and 58.7% of revenue, respectively, with the delta driven by 3.5 million of acquisition-related intangible asset amortization [12] - Q3 GAAP operating expenses were 110.8million,andnonGAAPoperatingexpenseswere110.8 million, and non-GAAP operating expenses were 72.8 million, with the delta primarily due to restructuring costs of 26.8millionandstockbasedcompensationof26.8 million and stock-based compensation of 11.5 million [13] - Q3 cash flow used in operating activities was approximately 31million,with31 million, with 149 million in cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash at the end of the quarter [13] - Days sales outstanding (DSO) decreased to approximately 54 days in Q3, and gross inventory also decreased compared to the previous quarter [14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics - In infrastructure, the company's product shipment volume run rate is now greater than 1 million units per year, driven by high-speed optical data center connectivity [7] - The company is making significant progress in 5G wireless infrastructure with its millimeter and microwave backhaul modem and RF transceiver products [8] - The Panther III series hardware storage accelerators are gaining traction in enterprise storage and compute subsystems, with multiple design wins across major geographies [9] - In Ethernet connectivity, the company has a broad portfolio of 2.5 gigabit Ethernet switch products, with a Tier 1 North American enterprise OEM customer expected to ramp to production in 2025 [9] - Broadband and Wi-Fi connectivity are seeing design win traction, particularly with the PON platform and Wi-Fi 7 single-chip solution, with potential to reach a 100millionrunrateoverthenext24months[10]MarketDataandKeyMetricsThecompanyisseeingexponentialgrowthinAIworkloadsdrivingdesignactivityinhighspeedopticaldatacenterconnectivity[7]800gigabitPAM4Ethernetadoptionisstartingtoramp,with400gigabitdemandcontinuingtoaccelerate[7]Thecompanyiswellpositionedforcontentgrowthandrevenueexpansionin5GwirelessinfrastructureasserviceproviderCapExspendisexpectedtoimprovein2025[8]Thebroadbandbusinessisexpectedtogrowin2025,withorderratespickingup,particularlyinthecablebusiness,whichisstilldominatedbyDOCSIS3.1[20][21]CompanyStrategyandIndustryCompetitionThecompanyisfocusedoninnovationandinvestmentinstrategicapplicationssuchasopticalhighspeedinterconnects,wirelessinfrastructure,storage,Ethernet,WiFi,andfiberbroadbandaccessgateways[15]ThecompanyisleveragingitsMaxAItechnologyframeworktoenhancenetworkperformance,security,anduserconnectivityexperience,strengtheningitscompetitivepositioninthemarket[11]Thecompanyisseeingstrongtractionwithnewproductsinhighvaluemarkets,includingopticaldatacenterinterconnect,enterpriseEthernet,storageaccelerators,5Gwirelessinfrastructure,andmultigigabitPONbroadbandaccess[12]ManagementCommentaryonOperatingEnvironmentandFutureOutlookManagementisconfidentinachievingsequentialrevenueimprovementinthecomingquarters,drivenbyearlysignsofrecoveryincustomerorderratesandnewproducttraction[5]ThecompanyexpectsQ42024revenuetobebetween100 million run rate over the next 24 months [10] Market Data and Key Metrics - The company is seeing exponential growth in AI workloads driving design activity in high-speed optical data center connectivity [7] - 800 gigabit PAM4 Ethernet adoption is starting to ramp, with 400 gigabit demand continuing to accelerate [7] - The company is well-positioned for content growth and revenue expansion in 5G wireless infrastructure as service provider CapEx spend is expected to improve in 2025 [8] - The broadband business is expected to grow in 2025, with order rates picking up, particularly in the cable business, which is still dominated by DOCSIS 3.1 [20][21] Company Strategy and Industry Competition - The company is focused on innovation and investment in strategic applications such as optical high-speed interconnects, wireless infrastructure, storage, Ethernet, Wi-Fi, and fiber broadband access gateways [15] - The company is leveraging its Max AI technology framework to enhance network performance, security, and user connectivity experience, strengthening its competitive position in the market [11] - The company is seeing strong traction with new products in high-value markets, including optical data center interconnect, enterprise Ethernet, storage accelerators, 5G wireless infrastructure, and multi-gigabit PON broadband access [12] Management Commentary on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management is confident in achieving sequential revenue improvement in the coming quarters, driven by early signs of recovery in customer order rates and new product traction [5] - The company expects Q4 2024 revenue to be between 80 million and 100million,withbroadbandslightlydownandinfrastructure,connectivity,andindustrialmultimarketup[14]Managementisoptimisticaboutthecompanysabilitytoexceedthe1millionunitperyearrunrateforopticaltransceiversin2025,drivenbystrongdesignwintraction[17][18]Thecompanyexpectstoseea30100 million, with broadband slightly down and infrastructure, connectivity, and industrial multi-market up [14] - Management is optimistic about the company's ability to exceed the 1 million unit per year run rate for optical transceivers in 2025, driven by strong design win traction [17][18] - The company expects to see a 30%+ increase in infrastructure business revenue in 2025, driven by recovery in telecom spending and growth in optical and Panther products [33] Other Important Information - The company received the Best Emerging Supplier of the Year award from Cisco in Q3 [6] - The company showcased new technology and products at several industry events, including the Flash Memory Summit, ECOC, and Network X Summit [6] - The company is seeing widespread interest in next-generation broadband gateways and routers, with potential for significant Ethernet revenue growth over the coming years [9] Q&A Session Summary Question: Optical Transceiver Mix and Run Rate [16] - The company is forecasting to ship over 1 million units of optical transceivers by the end of 2024, with 800 gigabit being the larger fraction relative to 400 gigabit transceivers [17] - The company expects to exceed the 1 million unit run rate in 2025, driven by strong design win traction [18] Question: Broadband Business Outlook [19] - The broadband business is expected to grow in 2025, with order rates picking up, particularly in the cable business, which is still dominated by DOCSIS 3.1 [20][21] Question: Q4 Revenue Growth Drivers [23] - The company is seeing improved demand across the board, with strong bookings in broadband and optical, and modest recovery in connectivity and industrial multi-market [23][24] Question: Operating Expense Reduction [25] - The company is on track to realize a 20% to 25% reduction in operating expenses next year, with the majority of cost reductions already realized [25] Question: Book-to-Bill Ratio [27] - The company saw a significant uptick in bookings in Q3, with backlogs building nicely for Q4 and Q1, indicating a book-to-bill ratio above 1 [27] Question: Infrastructure Revenue Excluding Optical [30] - The company expects a 30%+ increase in infrastructure business revenue in 2025, driven by recovery in telecom spending and growth in optical and Panther products [33] Question: Normalized Revenue for Broadband and Connectivity [35] - The company expects broadband and connectivity revenue to grow double digits next year, driven by new product wins, share gains, and market transitions [36][37] Question: Optical Design Wins and Customer Qualification [38] - The company is working with all the top module makers globally, targeting major data centers, with strong traction in China and the U.S. [38][39] Question: Ethernet Switch Product Adoption [42] - The company is seeing excellent adoption of its 2.5 gigabit Ethernet switch products, with potential for 50 million to 100millioninannualizedrevenueoverthenextthreeyears[42][43]Question:MaxAIMonetizationStrategy[44]ThecompanyplanstoofferMaxAIasadefaultfeatureforcompetitivedifferentiation,withpotentialforcustomizedsolutionsforlargecustomers[44][45]Question:ChinaHyperscalerOpportunity[47]ThecompanyslowpoweropticalproductsarewellpositionedforgrowthinChina,withstrongdifferentiationinboththeU.S.andChinamarkets[47]Question:WiFiandConnectivityRevenueDrivers[48]ThecompanyisseeinggrowthinWiFiandEthernetconnectivity,drivenbynewmarketopportunitiesandstrongtractioninindustrialandenterprisemarkets[48]Question:OpticalDSPRunRateClarification[50]Thecompanyclarifiedthatthe1millionunitrunrateforopticalDSPsisannual,notquarterly,withexpectationstoexceedthisrunratein2025[51]Question:ChinaRestrictionsImpact[54]Thecompanyestimateda100 million in annualized revenue over the next three years [42][43] Question: Max AI Monetization Strategy [44] - The company plans to offer Max AI as a default feature for competitive differentiation, with potential for customized solutions for large customers [44][45] Question: China Hyperscaler Opportunity [47] - The company's low-power optical products are well-positioned for growth in China, with strong differentiation in both the U.S. and China markets [47] Question: Wi-Fi and Connectivity Revenue Drivers [48] - The company is seeing growth in Wi-Fi and Ethernet connectivity, driven by new market opportunities and strong traction in industrial and enterprise markets [48] Question: Optical DSP Run Rate Clarification [50] - The company clarified that the 1 million unit run rate for optical DSPs is annual, not quarterly, with expectations to exceed this run rate in 2025 [51] Question: China Restrictions Impact [54] - The company estimated a 5 million to 10millionimpactfromChinarestrictionsinthebackhalfof2024,butexpectsthistobebehindthemmovingforward[54]Question:PONFiberRolloutTiming[55]ThecompanyexpectsPONfiberrolloutmomentumtobuildinthelatterhalfof2025,withsignificantrevenuegrowthpotentialin2026and2027[55][56]Question:WirelessInfrastructureRecovery[58]Thecompanyexpectssteadyrecoveryinwirelessinfrastructurethroughout2025,drivenbytelecomspendingandupgradesinSoutheastAsia,LatinAmerica,andIndia[58][59]Question:StorageBusinessOutlook[60]Thecompanymaintainsitsrevenuetargetof10 million impact from China restrictions in the back half of 2024, but expects this to be behind them moving forward [54] Question: PON Fiber Rollout Timing [55] - The company expects PON fiber rollout momentum to build in the latter half of 2025, with significant revenue growth potential in 2026 and 2027 [55][56] Question: Wireless Infrastructure Recovery [58] - The company expects steady recovery in wireless infrastructure throughout 2025, driven by telecom spending and upgrades in Southeast Asia, Latin America, and India [58][59] Question: Storage Business Outlook [60] - The company maintains its revenue target of 50 million to $75 million for the storage business by 2026, with potential for growth beyond storage applications [60][61] Question: Rushmore 200 Gig Revenue Timing [63] - The company expects to showcase its Rushmore 200 gig product at OFC, with initial revenue driven by AI systems, particularly NVIDIA [63][64]