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Axalta ting Systems .(AXTA) - 2024 Q3 - Earnings Call Transcript

Financial Data and Key Metrics - Net sales increased to 1.32billion,markingthe15thconsecutivequarterofyearoveryeargrowth[9]AdjustedEBITDAincreasedby1.32 billion, marking the 15th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth [9] - Adjusted EBITDA increased by 30 million year-over-year to a record 291million,withamarginof22291 million, with a margin of 22%, up 220 basis points [10][11] - Full-year 2024 adjusted EBITDA is expected to exceed 1.1 billion, with adjusted diluted EPS and free cash flow also revised upward [18] - Gross margins improved to 35%, up 270 basis points, driven by lower variable costs and strong cost management [28] - Adjusted diluted earnings per share increased 31% to 0.59[32]BusinessLinePerformanceRefinishbusinessnetsalesgrew50.59 [32] Business Line Performance - Refinish business net sales grew 5% year-over-year, with 15 consecutive quarters of growth [19] - Performance coatings net sales increased 2% to 877 million, driven by recent acquisitions [33] - Industrial net sales declined 1% to 323million,inlinewithindustrytrends[34]Mobilitycoatingsnetsalesdecreased2323 million, in line with industry trends [34] - Mobility coatings net sales decreased 2% to 443 million, with light vehicle sales flat despite a 5% decline in build rates [35] - Commercial vehicle net sales declined 8%, consistent with industry forecasts [37] Market Performance - China and LATAM strategies diversified the customer base, with China outperforming the market by 20% [22] - LATAM growth is expected to contribute over 50millioninrevenueby2026[52]NorthAmericaandEuropeshowedmixedperformance,withNorthAmericasofteningandEuroperemainingstable[80]StrategicDirectionandIndustryCompetitionThecompanyisfocusedonthe2026APlan,aimingforgrowthandmarginexpansion[12][25]RecentinnovationsincludeAxaltaNimbusandAxaltaIRUSScan,enhancingefficiencyandproductivityinbodyshops[14]Thecompanyisexpandingitspositioninthepremiumandeconomysegmentsoftherefinishmarket[20][21]Newbusinesswinsinlightvehicleandcommercialvehiclesegmentsareexpectedtodrivegrowthin2025[13][24]ManagementCommentaryonOperatingEnvironmentandFutureOutlookManagementexpectsmacroeconomictrendstoremainsoftinthefirsthalfof2025butbelievesthecompanywillcontinuetooutperforminrefinishandlightvehicle[45]Thetransformationinitiativeisexpectedtodeliver50 million in revenue by 2026 [52] - North America and Europe showed mixed performance, with North America softening and Europe remaining stable [80] Strategic Direction and Industry Competition - The company is focused on the 2026 A Plan, aiming for growth and margin expansion [12][25] - Recent innovations include Axalta Nimbus and Axalta IRUS Scan, enhancing efficiency and productivity in body shops [14] - The company is expanding its position in the premium and economy segments of the refinish market [20][21] - New business wins in light vehicle and commercial vehicle segments are expected to drive growth in 2025 [13][24] Management Commentary on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expects macroeconomic trends to remain soft in the first half of 2025 but believes the company will continue to outperform in refinish and light vehicle [45] - The transformation initiative is expected to deliver 30-40millioninincrementalbenefitsin2025[46]Interestratereductionscouldlowerinterestexpenses,asnearly5040 million in incremental benefits in 2025 [46] - Interest rate reductions could lower interest expenses, as nearly 50% of the company's debt is floating rate [46] Other Important Information - The company ended the quarter with 1.2 billion in total liquidity, including 567millionincash[39]Netleveragewas2.7x,withatargetof2.5xbyyearend[39]567 million in cash [39] - Net leverage was 2.7x, with a target of 2.5x by year-end [39] - 50 million of shares were repurchased in Q3, bringing the total repurchases under the 700millionprogramto700 million program to 100 million [40] - Capital expenditures for Q3 were 33million,withyeartodateCapExat33 million, with year-to-date CapEx at 78 million [41] Q&A Session Summary Question: Margin outlook for 2025 and beyond [48] - The company has already achieved its 2026 A Plan margin target of 21% and is focusing on pivoting towards growth [49][50] - Productivity initiatives and supply chain improvements are expected to further enhance margins [51] Question: Growth contribution from new auto OEM wins [52] - Growth is expected primarily in China and LATAM, with LATAM contributing over 50millionby2026[52]Question:Volumetrendsandbodyshopactivity[53][55]Volumesweredownduetodistributorconsolidationanddestocking,butgrowthisexpectedtooffsetsoftnessinQ4[53][54]Bodyshopactivityisstabletosoftening,withregionalvariations[80]Question:IRUSrolloutandrefinishmarketstrategy[57][58]TheIRUSrolloutisprogressingwell,withplanstotriplethenumberofunitsdeployedin2025[58]Thecompanyisfocusingonbothpremiumandeconomysegments,withrecentacquisitionsstrengtheningtheeconomysegment[82]Question:Pricemixandrawmaterialtrends[63][64]Pricemixwasflatinperformancecoatings,withrefinishpricingholdingupwell[64]RawmaterialcostsareexpectedtoflatteninQ42024,withnormalinflationof250 million by 2026 [52] Question: Volume trends and body shop activity [53][55] - Volumes were down due to distributor consolidation and destocking, but growth is expected to offset softness in Q4 [53][54] - Body shop activity is stable to softening, with regional variations [80] Question: IRUS rollout and refinish market strategy [57][58] - The IRUS rollout is progressing well, with plans to triple the number of units deployed in 2025 [58] - The company is focusing on both premium and economy segments, with recent acquisitions strengthening the economy segment [82] Question: Price mix and raw material trends [63][64] - Price mix was flat in performance coatings, with refinish pricing holding up well [64] - Raw material costs are expected to flatten in Q4 2024, with normal inflation of 2%-3% expected in 2025 [65] Question: Share gains and competitive dynamics [69][70] - Share gains in LATAM and China are driving growth, with LATAM contributing 50-60 million by 2025 [70] - The company is well-positioned to continue winning new business in China due to strong execution and capacity expansion [71] Question: 2026 A Plan acceleration and capital deployment [75][76] - The company is ahead of schedule on most A Plan metrics and is considering accelerating the plan [75] - Capital deployment will be balanced between M&A, share repurchases, and growth investments [77][78] Question: Interest expense and tax rate outlook [84][85] - Interest expense is expected to be below 200 million in 2025, with potential for further reductions [84] - The company is working on initiatives to lower the tax rate, which could benefit EPS growth [85] Question: Q4 guidance and margin upside in mobility [89][92] - Q4 guidance reflects seasonal trends and macroeconomic uncertainties, but margins are expected to remain stable [90] - Mobility margins have upside potential, particularly with new business wins and expected commercial vehicle pre-buy activity in 2025-2026 [92][94] Question: Impact of Volkswagen's curtailment announcements [97] - The company will continue to supply Volkswagen at their demand levels, with regional dynamics and new customer wins offsetting any volume changes [97][98]