US Economics Analyst_ 2025 Housing Outlook_ Resilient but Rangebound (Walker)

Industry: Housing Market 1. Resilient but Rangebound Housing Market Outlook - The housing market is expected to remain resilient but rangebound in 2025, driven by demographic trends and a healthy labor market. - Higher mortgage rates are expected to continue, but the impact on housing turnover will be mitigated by the high level of home equity and low homeowner vacancy rates. - National home prices are forecasted to rise 3.3% December-over-December in 2024 and 4.3% in 2025, slightly below the historical average of 5%. 2. Existing Home Sales and Home Improvement Spending - Existing home sales are expected to decline in the coming months due to higher mortgage rates and the financial disincentive for homeowners to move. - Home improvement spending is expected to increase as homeowners invest in their current homes rather than moving, driven by low homeowner vacancy rates and high levels of home equity. 3. Single-Family Homebuilding - Single-family homebuilding is expected to remain elevated despite higher mortgage rates, due to limited housing supply and strong demand. - The build-to-rent segment is likely to provide an alternative source of demand, further reducing the sensitivity of single-family homebuilding to rates. 4. Multifamily Homebuilding - Multifamily construction is expected to fall further in 2025, but multifamily starts are likely to rebound but remain depressed. - The backlog of multifamily units under construction is expected to normalize by the end of 2025. 5. Residential Fixed Investment (RFI) Growth - RFI growth is expected to decline in 2024Q3-Q4 due to lower existing home sales and multifamily homebuilding, but is forecasted to rebound sharply in 2025Q1 before settling around a 2-3% growth pace in the second half of 2025. Company: Not specified 6. No specific company information provided in the document.