Macro at a Glance_ Latest views and forecasts

Summary of Key Points from Goldman Sachs Macro at a Glance Industry Overview - Aluminum and Copper Price Forecasts: The 3, 6, and 12-month price forecasts for aluminum have been raised to $2640, $2678, and $2733 per ton respectively, while copper forecasts are now $9600, $9740, and $10650 per ton, up from previous forecasts of $2500 and $9210 per ton. This adjustment is attributed to recent stimulus measures in China [1][1][1]. - Gold Price Forecasts: The 3-month gold price forecast has been increased to $2790 per ounce from $2750, but the 6 and 12-month forecasts have been lowered to $2860 and $2980 per ounce from $2900 and $3040 respectively, following a recent rally in gold prices [2][2][2]. Economic Growth Projections - Global GDP Growth: A global real GDP growth of 2.7% year-over-year is expected in 2024, driven by real household income growth, a gradual recovery in manufacturing, and continued rate cuts. Core inflation is projected to fall below 3% by the end of 2024 and converge towards 2% by the end of 2025 [3][3][3]. - US Economic Outlook: The US is expected to see above-consensus real GDP growth of 2.5% in 2024, supported by consumer spending growth, easing financial conditions, and a rebound in inventory investment. Core PCE inflation is anticipated to be 2.7% year-over-year by December 2024, with an unemployment rate projected to end 2024 at 4.1% [4][4][4]. - Euro Area Growth: The Euro area is projected to have a real GDP growth of 0.8% year-over-year in 2024, with expectations of firm real income growth and diminishing monetary policy drag. Core inflation is expected to slow to 2.5% year-over-year by December 2024 [6][6][6]. - China's Economic Forecast: China's real GDP growth is expected to be 4.9% year-over-year in 2024, bolstered by strong exports and significant policy easing measures, despite challenges such as weak domestic demand and a downturn in the property market [9][9][9]. Monetary Policy Insights - Federal Reserve Actions: The Federal Reserve is expected to implement consecutive 25 basis point cuts from November 2024 through June 2025, targeting a terminal rate range of 3.25% to 3.5% [5][5][5]. - European Central Bank Expectations: The European Central Bank is anticipated to deliver a 25 basis point cut in December 2024, followed by sequential cuts until the policy rate reaches 2% by June 2025 [8][8][8]. Geopolitical Considerations - US Election and Middle East Conflict: There is significant uncertainty surrounding the US election, which could have important policy implications, particularly regarding trade and fiscal policy. Additionally, ongoing conflicts in the Middle East could lead to substantial increases in oil prices if escalated [10][10][10]. Additional Insights - Inflation Trends: Core inflation is expected to decline due to soft core goods inflation, falling shelter inflation, and slowing services inflation and wage growth, reflecting an improved supply-demand balance in the global economy [3][3][3]. - Investment Considerations: Investors are advised to consider the report as one of many factors in their investment decisions, highlighting the importance of a comprehensive analysis of market conditions and forecasts [6][6][6].