China Auto Manufacturers_ Weekly EV_ICE Retail Sales Update (21-27 Oct, with 100% sector samples)

Summary of China Auto Manufacturers Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the China Auto Manufacturers industry, specifically analyzing the performance of Electric Vehicles (EVs) and Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles during the week of October 21-27, 2024 [1][7]. Key Insights - Weekly Sales Performance: - Full EV sector sales increased by 6% week-over-week (WoW), slightly surpassing forecasts. Month-to-date (MTD) sales showed a 7% month-over-month (MoM) increase, indicating strong momentum [1]. - Projected total EV sales for October are estimated at 1.175 million units, reflecting a 6.3% MoM increase, which is ahead of the consensus expectation of 0-4% MoM [1]. - The overall passenger vehicle (PV) sector, including both ICE and NEV, is tracking at 2.235 million units for October, representing a 5.8% MoM and 18.5% year-over-year (YoY) increase [1]. - Sales by Vehicle Type: - ICE vehicles showed a 10% MoM increase. - Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV) sales increased by 6% MoM. - Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV) sales rose by 12% MoM. - Extended Range Electric Vehicles (EREV) underperformed with a -2% change [1]. - NEV Sales Penetration: - NEV sales penetration for the last two weeks was 55.1% and 55.4%, compared to 46.2% and 50.2% in the first two weeks of October [1]. - BYD Performance: - BYD's weekly sales for the period were reported at 7% WoW and 9% MTD MoM, indicating solid performance within the sector [1]. Market Share Trends - Japanese Brands: - Notable declines in market share for major brands: - Toyota down 1.2 percentage points (ppt) YoY to 7.0%. - Honda down 1.8 ppt YoY to 3.8%. - Nissan down 0.2 ppt YoY to 2.8% [2]. - German Brands: - VW down 1.1 ppt YoY to 9.5%. - Audi down 0.3 ppt YoY to 2.9%. - Brilliance BMW down 0.7 ppt YoY to 2.8% [2]. - US Brands: - SAIC GM down 1.8 ppt YoY to 2.5%. - Changan Ford down 0.2 ppt YoY to 0.5% [2]. - Korean Brands: - Overall market share decline of 0.5 ppt YoY to 1.0% [2]. Analyst Commentary - Analysts express a cautious outlook for the upcoming months, anticipating a seasonal rally in November and December, particularly for European auto manufacturers [3]. Additional Insights - The report includes various figures and charts illustrating sales trends, market share changes, and valuation comparisons among different manufacturers [8][10][11]. - The data indicates a competitive landscape with significant shifts in market share among traditional and new entrants in the EV space [2][3]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the performance metrics, market share dynamics, and analyst perspectives within the China auto manufacturing sector.