Ryanair(RYAAY)2024-11-04 21:36Financial Data and Key Metrics - H1 after-tax profits were EUR1.8 billion, down 18% YoY from EUR2.18 billion [4] - H1 revenues increased by 10% to EUR2.74 billion, driven by 9% traffic growth [7] - Average fares fell by 10% in H1, with Q1 down 15% and Q2 down 7% [4] - Gross cash at the end of H1 was over EUR3.3 billion, with net cash at EUR600 million [8] - The company completed a EUR700 million share buyback in August and is 30% through a EUR800 million follow-on buyback [6] Business Line Data and Key Metrics - The fleet consisted of 608 aircraft at the end of H1, including 170 B737 Gamechangers, which increased to 172 by October [5] - Five new bases and 200 new routes were opened during the summer [5] - Approved OTA partnerships now cover over 90% of all OTAs, protecting consumers from overcharging [5] Market Data and Key Metrics - Traffic grew by 9% to a record 115 million passengers, though it would have been higher without Boeing delays [4] - The company expects to carry between 198 million and 200 million passengers for the full year, up 8% YoY [18] - Forward bookings for Q3 are strong, with 70% of bookings already in the system [18] Company Strategy and Industry Competition - The company is focusing on cost discipline, with unit costs expected to be broadly flat for the full year [19] - Ryanair's cost advantage over competitors is widening due to owning its entire Boeing 737 fleet, avoiding expensive leases [8] - The company is working closely with Boeing to manage delivery delays and expects to receive 15 of 29 delayed aircraft by June 2025 [11][12] Management Commentary on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the industry is facing capacity constraints due to Boeing delays and Pratt & Whitney repairs, which could lead to higher pricing in the medium term [15] - The company is optimistic about pricing for summer 2025 and 2026, given weak prior-year comparables and capacity constraints [16] - Management highlighted the impact of consumer spending tightness in Europe and the OTA dispute on pricing softness [14] Other Important Information - The Board is reviewing ownership and control restrictions, with a decision expected in the first half of 2025 [17] - The company has hedged 85% of its fuel for H2 FY25 at $79 per barrel and 75% for FY26 at $77 per barrel [6] - Ryanair has returned almost EUR9 billion to shareholders since 2008, including dividends and share buybacks [9] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of ATC disruptions and OTA disputes - The OTA dispute impacted load factors by 2-3 points in Q3 and Q4 of the previous year, with a more significant impact in summer 2024 [28] - Management estimates that up to half of the 10% fare decline in H1 was due to the OTA dispute, with the other half attributed to consumer spending pressure [31] - Forward bookings for summer 2025 are strong, with a 2% increase compared to the same period last year [36] Question: Fuel hedging and cost management - The company has hedged 75% of its fuel for FY26 at $77 per barrel, taking advantage of recent price weakness [6] - Unit costs are expected to be broadly flat for the full year, with fuel hedge savings offsetting ex-fuel cost inflation [19] - Overstaffing due to Boeing delays resulted in higher crew costs, but the company expects to manage this better in FY26 [48] Question: Aircraft delivery delays and growth outlook - Boeing delays have forced the company to revise its traffic growth targets, with FY25 now expected at 200 million passengers (down from 205 million) and FY26 at 210 million (down from 215 million) [12] - The company is working closely with Boeing and expects to receive 15 of 29 delayed aircraft by June 2025 [11] - Management remains optimistic about the MAX 10 certification, which is expected in the second half of 2025 [79] Question: Ancillary revenue performance - Ancillary revenue grew by 10% in H1, slightly ahead of the 9% traffic growth [90] - Key drivers of ancillary revenue include reserved seating, onboard sales, and the new order-to-seat initiative [91] - The company is working to optimize pricing and improve priority boarding performance [92] Question: Share buybacks and capital allocation - The company completed a EUR700 million share buyback in August and is 30% through a EUR800 million follow-on buyback [6] - Future buybacks will depend on cash generation, with priority given to bond repayments in 2025 and 2026 [74] - The Board remains committed to returning surplus cash to shareholders through dividends and buybacks [164] Question: Ownership and control restrictions - The Board is reviewing potential changes to ownership and control restrictions, with a decision expected in the first half of 2025 [17] - The company has consulted with 60% of its shareholders and expects to complete the process in the next 3-4 months [103] - Potential outcomes include removing ownership restrictions, removing voting restrictions, or maintaining the status quo [107]