2024年美国总统大选 最新选情及后期影响

Summary of the Conference Call on the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election, highlighting its significance for both domestic and global economic policies. Key Points and Arguments Election Process and Candidates - The U.S. presidential election is an indirect election where voters select electors who then vote for the president, requiring 270 electoral votes to win [2][3] - The main candidates are Donald Trump (Republican) and Kamala Harris (Democrat), with Trump having prior experience as the 45th president [3][4] Election Timeline - The election day is set for November 5, 2024, with voting deadlines varying by state, and results expected to be clearer by November 6, 2024 [4][5] Polling Data - As of November 5, 2024, polling data indicates that Harris leads Trump by 0.1 percentage points, reflecting a highly competitive race [6] - Key swing states include Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, which hold a total of 93 electoral votes [6][7] Historical Context - The 2020 election saw significant delays in results due to mail-in ballots, with Trump not conceding until January 6, 2021, leading to a chaotic confirmation process [5][6] Potential Outcomes and Implications - If Trump wins, he may face challenges in implementing policies due to potential opposition in Congress, where Republicans are close to securing a majority [9] - Trump's policies are characterized by nationalism and deregulation, while Harris focuses on inclusivity and opportunity in economic policies [10][11] Economic Impact - Trump's previous term showed a 3.1% average global GDP growth, indicating limited impact on global economic dynamics [11] - If Trump implements tariffs, it could lead to increased inflation in the U.S. due to higher consumer prices [12][13] U.S.-China Relations - Trump's potential re-election may lead to increased tariffs on Chinese goods, affecting U.S.-China trade dynamics, although China's export resilience is noted [14][15] Harris's Potential Impact - If Harris wins, policies are expected to continue in a similar vein to Biden's administration, with a neutral impact on global trade and ongoing geopolitical tensions [16][17] Conclusion - The election is highly competitive, with significant implications for U.S. domestic and foreign policy, economic conditions, and international relations. The potential for a power transition period exists if the losing candidate does not concede, which could extend until January 6, 2025 [17][18]