Monthly Databook_ Lower iPhone Builds in 4Q24

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - Industry: Greater China Technology Hardware, specifically focusing on Apple products and notebook ODMs in the Asia Pacific region Key Points on iPhone and iPad Builds - iPhone Build Estimates: - The forecast for 4Q24 iPhone builds has been lowered to 73 million units (+35% QoQ, -3% YoY) [1] - Breakdown of iPhone builds: - 61 million units from the iPhone 16 family - 7 million units from the iPhone 15 family - 5 million units from legacy models [22][23] - iPad Build Estimates: - The forecast for 4Q24 iPad builds remains at 15 million units (+15% QoQ, flat YoY) [1][24] Notebook Shipments - Notebook ODM Shipments: - The estimate for 4Q24 notebook ODM shipments has been lowered to 31.1 million units (-8% QoQ, +3% YoY) [11] - This is below the historical average of +3% QoQ, indicating a slowdown in demand [12] - October Shipments: - October shipments of the top five ODMs were 10.1 million units, 2% above expectations [4][8] - Notable performances: - Wistron: 1.8 million units (-5% m/m, +6% y/y) - Compal: 2.8 million units (-3% m/m, -3% y/y) - Quanta: 3.2 million units (-35% m/m, +10% y/y) [8] Market Dynamics - Consumer Spending: Ongoing weakness in consumer spending is impacting new model sales, particularly for iPhones [1] - Supply Chain Insights: - Slower build strength for iPhones is noted, with adjustments made based on production lead times and model preferences [1] - The overall sentiment indicates a cautious outlook for the remainder of 2024, with expectations of improved performance in 1Q25 due to new AI PC model launches [11] Additional Insights - Historical Context: The current estimates reflect a significant decline compared to historical averages, with the 4Q24 YoY increase being the fourth largest since 2011 [12] - Future Outlook: The introduction of mainstream x86 AI PC models in 1H25 is anticipated to drive demand, although the immediate impact on PC end-demand is expected to be limited for the rest of the year [8] Conclusion - The conference call highlighted a cautious outlook for both iPhone and notebook shipments, driven by consumer spending weakness and supply chain dynamics. The adjustments in build estimates reflect a strategic response to current market conditions, with a potential for recovery in early 2025.