China Property Monthly Tracker_ Narrower ASP decline and mild pick up in completion

Summary of the China Property Monthly Tracker Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Chinese property market, highlighting trends in property sales, prices, and completions as of October 2024. Key Points 1. National Property Sales: - Nationwide property sales showed a cumulative decline of approximately 10% since the last positive print in March 2022, with sales volume and value down 21% and 13% month-over-month (MoM) respectively in October 2024. Year-to-date (YTD) sales volume and value were down 16% and 21% year-over-year (YoY) respectively [4][5][6]. 2. Average Selling Price (ASP): - The blended ASP increased by 10% MoM and 1% YoY, contrasting with a decline of 5% MoM and 6% YoY in September 2024. The average ASP for the first ten months of 2024 was down 6% YoY [4][5][6]. 3. Completion and New Starts: - Gross floor area (GFA) completions were down 20% YoY in October 2024, with a total of 2.85 million units delivered YTD, which is a 450,000 unit increase in one month. New starts recorded a 27% YoY decline in October 2024 [4][5][6]. 4. Secondary Market Activity: - Secondary transaction volumes in 15 major cities rose 29% MoM and 27% YoY in October 2024. Tier-1 cities recorded a 58% YoY increase in secondary sales volume [4][5][6][17]. 5. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook: - The sentiment among agencies and homebuyers improved, with a 10 percentage point increase above pre-easing levels. However, the new home search demand index softened shortly after easing, indicating limited upside potential due to curtailed new project launches by developers [4][5][6]. 6. Government Policy Impact: - Recent policy easing measures, including deed tax and VAT cuts, have contributed to a slight recovery in market sentiment. Upcoming fiscal stimulus and land bank buyback guidance from the Ministry of Natural Resources (MNR) are anticipated to support the market further [4][5][6]. 7. Inventory Levels: - Completed but unsold residential inventory saw an 8th consecutive monthly decline, reaching 375 million square meters, which is a 7% decrease from the all-time high in February 2024 [4][5][6]. 8. Regional Variations: - Type-A cities, characterized by stronger fundamentals, experienced positive MoM ASP growth in the secondary market for the first time since March 2023. In contrast, smaller cities continued to see ASP declines [4][5][6]. Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of stabilization trends in major cities to boost market confidence for broader price recovery. The clarity of these trends will be essential for future market dynamics [3][4][5][6]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the telephone conference regarding the current state and outlook of the Chinese property market, highlighting both challenges and potential recovery signals.