GS Equity Radar_ 2025 Macro Outlooks _ Carbonomics _ New Ideas _ Europe Pharma _ US Capex Views _ China Consumer

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - Industries Covered: Macro outlook for the US, Euro Area, China, Chemicals, Aerospace & Defense (A&D), Media & Internet, Payments, Utilities, Healthcare, Airlines, and Consumer Durables - Companies Mentioned: BASF, MTU Aero Engines, Springer Nature, Adyen, BT Group, AstraZeneca, IAG, Siemens Energy, RWE, Experian, Saint-Gobain, Novo Nordisk Core Insights and Arguments Macro Economic Outlook - US Economy: Expected to grow by 2.5% in 2025, outperforming consensus and other developed markets [2] - Inflation: Core PCE inflation estimated at 2.4% by late 2025, with a benign inflation outlook [2] - Euro Area: Forecasted growth of 0.8% in 2025, despite challenges from tariffs and structural headwinds [2] - China: GDP forecast reduced to 4.5% due to ongoing US-China trade tensions [2] Chemicals Sector - BASF: Expected to reach a trough in FY24, with a compelling case for investment based on the "Rule of Three" Framework, which includes trough margins, management concessions, and positive volume signs [4][5] Aerospace & Defense - MTU Aero Engines: Upgraded to Buy, with a forecasted free cash flow (FCF) increase to €0.7 billion in 2026, significantly above consensus [6] Media & Internet - Springer Nature: Initiated coverage with a Buy rating, expecting a 4% CAGR in revenue from 2023-2028 and margin expansion [9] Payments Sector - Adyen: Maintained Buy rating despite lower digital volumes from a specific customer, with a positive long-term growth outlook [10] Utilities - Siemens Energy: FY24 results showed a strong order backlog of €123 billion, with potential for earnings upgrades [14] - RWE: Announced a €1.5 billion share buyback, indicating a shareholder-friendly capital allocation strategy [15] Healthcare - AstraZeneca: Reported a beat and raise in Q3, with positive momentum in oncology drug pipeline [16] - Novo Nordisk: Positive outlook on obesity therapy growth, with expectations for increased prescriptions [16] Airlines - IAG: EBIT estimates raised by 9% for 2024/25, with expected FCF of €2 billion in 2024E [16] Consumer Durables - Saint-Gobain: Exploring a potential sale of its auto glass unit for up to €2.5 billion, seen as a strategic positive for portfolio transformation [17] - US Tariffs on China: Anticipated additional tariffs could impact profits by an average of -18%, with varying effects across sectors [21] Other Important Insights - Carbonomics Conference: Highlighted the importance of inclusive growth and decarbonization, with a focus on affordability and technological innovation [2] - US Capex Growth: Expected to rebound to 5% in 2025, driven by investments in datacenters and AI equipment [18] - Disney: Reported FY24 results with EPS growth expectations exceeding consensus [18] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into various industries and companies, along with macroeconomic forecasts and strategic developments.