Asia Economics Analyst_ 2025 Macro Outlook_ Korea, Taiwan, and Vietnam—Navigating Trade Cross-Currents

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The report focuses on the macroeconomic outlook for three trade-oriented economies: Korea, Taiwan, and Vietnam, highlighting their export performance and domestic demand dynamics in 2024 and expectations for 2025 [2][5][8]. Key Points Export Performance - Exports from Korea, Taiwan, and Vietnam outperformed expectations in 2024, with Vietnam leading the performance for the first nine months [5][8]. - Robust exports have supported overall economic growth above potential despite tight monetary and credit policies [5][8]. - In 2025, growth is expected to slow significantly in Korea and Taiwan, while Vietnam's growth is projected to rise moderately [2][8]. - A broad moderation in exports is anticipated due to weak demand from mainland China and uncertainties surrounding US trade policy [2][8]. - The report notes a significant reduction in export exposure to China for these economies, attributed to localization of supply chains and US tariffs [2][8][9]. Domestic Demand Dynamics - Domestic demand is expected to diverge among the three economies: sustained strength in Vietnam, recovery in Korea, and moderation in Taiwan [20][23]. - In Korea, consumption is projected to recover slowly due to declines in borrowing costs and a moderate fiscal stance, while investment is unlikely to see significant growth due to uncertainties in US trade policy [20][23]. - Taiwan is expected to experience double-digit increases in equipment investment driven by strong AI-related demand, despite a slowdown in private consumption growth [20][23]. - Vietnam's labor market is normalizing post-pandemic, with job growth returning to pre-pandemic levels and wages rising around 8% [23][24]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflation in Korea, Taiwan, and Vietnam is expected to moderate in line with targets due to stabilizing commodity prices and weak global demand [28][31]. - The Bank of Korea (BOK) is expected to gradually cut the policy rate to 2.25% by late 2025, reflecting slow growth and reduced risks of housing market overheating [35][39]. - Taiwan's monetary policy is expected to ease moderately, while Vietnam's credit policy may become less restrictive as financial stability improves [36][39]. Risks and Opportunities - Main risks include potential growth downturns from a broader trade war and deflationary pressures from China's excess capacity [41][43]. - Upside risks could arise from trade reallocation away from China, benefiting Vietnam's labor-intensive goods and Taiwan and Korea's capital-intensive goods [41][43]. Economic Projections - GDP growth forecasts for 2025: Korea at 1.8%, Taiwan at 2.6%, and Vietnam at 6.4% [44]. - Headline CPI inflation projections for 2025: Korea at 1.6%, Taiwan at 1.3%, and Vietnam at 3.3% [44]. Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of considering external factors, such as US trade policy and China's economic performance, in assessing the outlook for these economies [2][41]. - The analysis highlights the shifting trade dynamics and the increasing importance of the US as a market for these economies, particularly in value-added terms [13][17].