出海加速及内需改善背景下，如何看待中国可选消费当前的机会

Summary of UBS Conference Call on Consumer Sector Industry Focus - Consumer Sector: The discussion primarily revolves around the Chinese consumer sector, particularly focusing on the optional consumption segment, including retail, home appliances, and dining. Key Insights and Arguments 1. Outward Expansion and Domestic Demand Improvement - The conference emphasized the acceleration of Chinese companies' overseas expansion and the improvement of domestic demand as key themes in the consumer sector [1][2][12]. 2. Trends in Retail and Emotional Consumption - The retail industry, especially in the context of "潮玩" (trendy toys), is experiencing significant growth driven by emotional consumption, which is outperforming the overall consumer market [3][4]. - Emotional consumption is characterized by selling toy products to adults, indicating a shift in market demand [4][5]. 3. Performance of Japanese Market as a Benchmark - Historical data from Japan shows that while overall consumer spending has been stable, the anime-related industry has seen rapid growth, with retail sales of related products increasing by 30% to 40% [3][4]. - The trend of adult consumers purchasing toys is also noted in Japan, where the market has slightly grown despite a declining youth population [4]. 4. Sustainability of Trendy Toys - Trendy toys, often driven by IP (intellectual property), have shown a longer lifecycle than expected, with successful brands maintaining popularity for over two years [6][7]. - The discussion highlighted the importance of innovation in IP to sustain sales growth during upward cycles [8]. 5. Discount Stores' Competitive Advantage - Discount stores in China are noted for their strong price-performance ratio, which remains competitive globally [10][11]. - The sector has shown resilience during economic downturns, with stable growth rates observed even in challenging times [11]. 6. Government Policies and Consumer Stimulus - The introduction of government subsidies for appliance upgrades is expected to positively impact the white goods sector, with projections for significant growth in 2025 [19][20]. - The current subsidy program is anticipated to extend beyond 2024, further stimulating demand [20][21]. 7. Impact of E-commerce and Promotions - The Double 11 shopping festival showed a 27% year-on-year growth in the home appliance sector, with high-end brands experiencing even greater increases [38]. - The competitive landscape in the dining sector is influenced by aggressive discounting strategies, with brands focusing on inventory management [39][40]. 8. Emerging Competition from New Entrants - The entry of new players like Xiaomi into the home appliance market has raised concerns among investors, particularly in the air conditioning segment where Xiaomi's market share has significantly increased [23][24]. - The shift in consumer preferences towards high-cost performance products is driving this competitive dynamic [24][25]. 9. Trends in the Smart Home Appliance Sector - The sweeping robot market is experiencing a surge in demand, attributed to a shift towards more affordable pricing strategies and increased consumer acceptance of lower price points [31][32]. - The export of smart home appliances is also highlighted as a significant growth area, with many brands achieving substantial overseas sales [27][30]. Other Important Insights - The conference noted the importance of leveraging social media and attractive store designs for brand building in overseas markets [14]. - The discussion also touched on the need for companies to adapt to changing consumer behaviors and preferences, particularly in the context of emotional consumption and the growing trend of adult-targeted products [5][12]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the UBS conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the consumer sector in China.