China Passenger Vehicle Monthly Chartbook_ Oct 2024 - Strong demand growth, BYD NEV market share +2.7pp_+1.6pp yoy_mom to 36%

Summary of the China Passenger Vehicle Monthly Chartbook Industry Overview - Industry: Passenger Vehicle and New Energy Vehicle (NEV) in China - Date: October 2024 - Key Trends: Strong demand growth, particularly in NEVs, with significant market share gains for leading companies like BYD and ZEEKR Core Insights 1. Demand Growth: The trade-in stimulus is effectively driving positive demand, pricing, and inventory trends, with a recommendation to buy BYD due to its market share gain of 2.7 percentage points year-over-year (yoy) and 1.6 percentage points month-over-month (mom) to 36% [2][30] 2. Sales Volume: - Passenger vehicle retail volume reached 2,261,000 units (+11% yoy, +7% mom) - Wholesale volume was 2,732,000 units (+12% yoy, +9% mom) [13][20] - NEV retail volume was 1,196,000 units (+55% yoy, +6% mom) and wholesale volume was 1,369,000 units (+54% yoy, +11% mom) [12][20] 3. Market Penetration: NEV retail penetration reached 52.9% (+14.91 percentage points yoy) and wholesale penetration was 50.1% (+13.71 percentage points yoy) [14] Company Highlights 1. BYD (002594.SZ / 1211.HK): - Achieved a yoy volume growth of 67% and a mom growth of 12% - Monthly volume reached an all-time high with stable blended transaction prices - Anticipated further increases in monthly deliveries and average selling prices (ASP) due to production capacity adjustments and new premium models [7][30] 2. ZEEKR (ZK): - Reported the highest yoy volume growth at 92% and mom growth at 17% - Expected to see further volume increases as new models ramp up [8][31] 3. XPeng (XPEV / 9868.HK): - Showed a yoy volume growth of 2% and mom growth of 9% - Anticipated increase in volume driven by the new P7+ model, which received over 30,000 confirmed orders shortly after launch [9][32] Pricing and Inventory Trends 1. Inventory Trends: - Total passenger vehicle inventory was 3.02 million units in September 2024, down 16% yoy and 4% mom - NEV inventory was 450,000 units, up 32% yoy [23][63] 2. Pricing Trends: - NEV average dealer price discounts narrowed to 7.28% in October 2024 from 7.87% in September 2024 - Internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles saw an increase in average discounts to 21.36% [24] 3. Battery Prices: - Average lithium carbonate price was RMB 75,800 per ton, down 57% yoy but flat mom - Average LFP and NCM cell prices also showed slight declines [25] Additional Insights - Trade-in Subsidy Program: The Ministry of Commerce reported 1.68 million applications for the auto trade-in subsidy program, indicating strong consumer interest in upgrading vehicles [46] - Future Outlook: The management of leading companies expects rational pricing competition in Q4 2024, supported by increasing demand and trade-in subsidies [30] This summary encapsulates the key points from the October 2024 China Passenger Vehicle Monthly Chartbook, highlighting the robust growth in the NEV sector and the performance of major players in the market.