洪灏：特朗普红潮对于市场的影响

Key Points Industry/Company Involved * U.S. Elections and Market Impacts: The discussion primarily revolves around the implications of the U.S. elections on global markets, particularly focusing on the impact on Asian assets and positioning. Core Views and Arguments * Market Sentiment and U.S. Election Results: The author believes that the market will likely rise regardless of the election outcome. This is attributed to the fact that the Chinese market is expected to benefit from the announcement of the NPCSC, which is likely to lift market sentiment. * Trump's Impact on Markets: The author argues that the market has already priced in the negative implications of a Trump victory, leading to a potential rally if he wins. * Mexico Peso Volatility: The author highlights the significant increase in the Mexican peso's implied volatility, suggesting that the market is highly sensitive to risks associated with the U.S. election outcome. Other Important Content * Misleading Polls: The author criticizes the accuracy of polls in predicting election outcomes, arguing that they often fail to capture the true concerns of voters. * Economic Concerns: The author notes that many voters are concerned about economic issues, such as wages and immigration, rather than political ideology. * Market Risk: The author emphasizes the high level of market risk at present, suggesting that the market is vulnerable to significant volatility following the election outcome.