MEMORY TRACKER (October)_ Server & HBM to keep 4QCY24 blended DRAM ASP up L-MSD% QoQ

Summary of Global Memory Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the global memory market, specifically DRAM and NAND sectors, highlighting trends in pricing and demand dynamics for various applications including PC, mobile, and server memory [4][12][25]. Key Points on DRAM Market - Price Trends: - PC DRAM contract prices are expected to decline in 4QCY24, with a forecasted drop of approximately 8-13% for chips and a stable price for modules [8][27]. - Server DRAM prices, particularly DDR5, have shown resilience with a 3-4% increase month-over-month in October [28][31]. - The overall blended DRAM average selling price (ASP) is projected to rise by low to mid-single digits percentage (L-MSD%) in 4QCY24, supported by server and HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) demand [12][34]. - Demand Dynamics: - Weak demand in the PC and mobile segments is attributed to inventory corrections and lower OEM purchasing activity, while server demand remains robust due to AI applications [12][30]. - The transition to DDR5 is ongoing, with penetration rates exceeding 70%, contributing to price stability in the server segment [31]. - Future Outlook: - Inventory digestion is expected to complete in 1-2 quarters, with potential price increases in PC and smartphone DRAM anticipated in 2Q or 3QCY25 as seasonality and HBM capacity consumption improve [12][34]. Key Points on NAND Market - Price Trends: - NAND wafer contract prices have begun to decline, with an estimated drop of 11% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) for 4QCY24, although the decline may be moderated to mid-single digits percentage (MSD%) due to strong eSSD demand [9][41]. - Spot prices for NAND wafers fell by approximately 6% month-over-month in October [10][39]. - Demand Dynamics: - The mobile NAND segment is facing pressure with forecasts indicating an 8-13% decline in contract prices for 4QCY24, driven by slow smartphone demand and high inventory levels [40][41]. - eSSD demand remains strong, which is expected to cushion the overall ASP decline in the NAND market [41]. - Future Outlook: - The NAND market is anticipated to experience limited capex growth, which should help moderate price declines moving into CY25 [41][42]. Additional Insights - Market Sentiment: - Analysts express a cautious outlook on the memory market, emphasizing the need for careful monitoring of inventory levels and demand shifts, particularly in the context of macroeconomic factors affecting consumer spending [12][34]. - Investment Ratings: - Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are rated as "Outperform" with target prices set at KRW 104,000 and KRW 240,000 respectively, reflecting confidence in their market positions despite current pricing pressures [21][22]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future expectations of the global memory market.