China Spirits Tracker_ Moutai and Wuliangye shipment suspension to stabilize prices from Nov, Feitian back to Rmb2,270_bottle

Industry and Company Overview * Industry: Spirits sector in China * Key Companies: Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye Yibin, ZJLD, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine, Luzhou Laojiao, Jiangsu Yanghe, Anhui Gujing Distillery Co., Jiugui Liquor, Sichuan Swellfun Co., Jiangsu King's Luck Brewery Key Points 1. Moutai and Wuliangye Shipment Suspension: Moutai Sales Company and Wuliangye announced shipment suspensions to stabilize prices and improve channel health. This reflects leading companies' commitment to supporting wholesale prices and boosting channel confidence [3]. 2. Wholesale Price Trends: Original case Feitian Moutai's wholesale price increased by Rmb40 to Rmb2,270 per bottle, while unpacked Feitian Moutai's wholesale price increased by Rmb30 to Rmb2,230 per bottle. Common Wuliangye's wholesale price remained flattish at Rmb950 per bottle, and Guojiao 1573's wholesale price remained flattish at Rmb860 per bottle [5]. 3. 3Q24 Results: The spirits industry experienced a sequentially weak 3Q24, with companies shifting focus to proactive channel adjustments and improving shareholder return visibility. Wuliangye announced a 3-year plan with a 70%+ payout ratio and Rmb20bn+ dividend amount [5]. 4. Consumer Vouchers: MOFCOM announced the rollout of more consumer vouchers and promotion activities to stimulate consumption [13]. 5. Baijiu Output: Baijiu output of above-scale enterprises reached 363k kiloliters in September, down 9.9% yoy [15]. 6. High-end Liquor Prices: Original case Feitian Moutai's wholesale price decreased by Rmb695 from Rmb2,965 to Rmb2,270, while unpacked Feitian Moutai's wholesale price decreased by Rmb480 from Rmb2,710 to Rmb2,230. Common Wuliangye's wholesale price decreased by Rmb10 from Rmb960 to Rmb950, and Guojiao 1573's wholesale price decreased by Rmb15 from Rmb875 to Rmb860 [18]. 7. Channel Policy and Product Launches: Key spirits companies implemented various channel policies and product launches, including price hikes, new product launches, and shipment suspensions [31, 34]. 8. Valuation and Risks: Goldman Sachs provided valuation tables and key risks for selected spirits companies, considering factors such as P/E ratios, target prices, and potential risks like regulation changes, environmental pollution, and macroeconomic recovery [41, 43]. Additional Important Points * Online Retail Prices: Online retail prices of Feitian Moutai, Common Wuliangye, and Guojiao 1573 were analyzed, showing trends and changes over time [9]. * Wholesale Price Summary: A summary of wholesale prices for high-end liquors was provided, including Feitian Moutai, Wuliangye, and Guojiao 1573 [18]. * Performance and Valuation: Performance and valuation tables were presented for selected spirits companies, considering factors like P/E ratios, target prices, and EV/EBITDA multiples [41]. * Valuation Methodology and Key Risks: Valuation methodologies and key risks were discussed for selected spirits companies, considering factors like P/E ratios, target prices, and potential risks like regulation changes and macroeconomic recovery [43]. * Investment Trusts Association, Japan: Information on the Investment Trusts Association, Japan, and its role in the spirits sector was provided [57]. * Ratings, Coverage Universe, and Related Definitions: Definitions and explanations of ratings, coverage universe, and related terms were provided [58]. * Global Product and Distributing Entities: Information on the global distribution of research products and the entities involved was provided [59]. * General Disclosures: General disclosures regarding the research, its limitations, and potential conflicts of interest were provided [60]. * Differing Levels of Service: Information on the varying levels of service provided by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research was provided [62]. * © 2024 Goldman Sachs: Copyright information was provided [64]. * Restrictions on Use: Restrictions on the use of the information provided were outlined [65].