2024年SBS橡胶不一样的一年

Summary of the Conference Call on SBS Rubber Industry Industry Overview - The conference focuses on the SBS (Styrene-Butadiene-Styrene) rubber industry in China, analyzing supply and demand from 2020 to 2024 [1][2][3]. Key Points Supply and Demand Analysis - Production Capacity: - The total SBS production capacity is projected to reach 1.96 million tons by 2024, with effective capacity at approximately 1.36 million tons [2][10]. - New production capacities added from 2020 to 2024 include 40,000 tons in 2020, 170,000 tons in 2021, 125,000 tons in 2023, and 225,000 tons in 2024 [2][3]. - Production Trends: - SBS production fluctuated between 900,000 to 950,000 tons from 2020 to 2023, but is expected to decline to around 750,000 tons in 2024 [4][10]. - The production distribution by enterprise type shows state-owned enterprises increasing their share from 43% in 2020 to 54% in 2024, while joint ventures and private enterprises see slight decreases [4][5]. - Import and Export Dynamics: - Imports of SBS are expected to rise significantly due to increased Russian supply, with 2023 imports at 68,800 tons and a slight decrease to 62,300 tons projected for 2024 [6][7]. - Exports have shown rapid growth, from 22,500 tons in 2020 to an expected 100,000 tons in 2024, with significant contributions from dry and oil rubber exports [8][9]. Price Analysis - Price Trends: - The average price of SBS has shown a general upward trend from 2014 to 2024, with significant fluctuations during specific years [11][12]. - The price of dry rubber reached a peak of 17,700 yuan per ton in October 2024, while oil rubber peaked at 14,200 yuan per ton [12][13]. - Cost and Profit Analysis: - The cost of raw materials such as butadiene and styrene has fluctuated, with butadiene prices ranging from 8,800 to 13,800 yuan per ton in 2024 [13][14]. - The profit margins for SBS producers are influenced by the cost of raw materials and market demand, with expectations of price adjustments in late 2024 [13][14]. Consumption Trends - Apparent Consumption: - Apparent consumption of SBS is projected to decline to around 710,000 tons in 2024, closely following the production trends and influenced by export growth [10][11]. Additional Insights - The conference highlighted the importance of monitoring the shifts in production capacity and market dynamics, particularly the impact of Russian imports on the domestic market [6][8]. - The analysis of price trends and cost structures provides valuable insights for investors looking to understand the profitability and market positioning of SBS producers in China [12][13].