China Auto Manufacturers_ Weekly Data (100% sample) update + 4Q24 vs 1Q25 domestic & export comments

Summary of China Auto Manufacturers Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the China Auto Manufacturers industry, particularly the performance of New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) and traditional Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles during the period from October 28 to November 3, 2024 [1][10]. Key Findings 1. NEV Retail Sales Penetration: - Weekly NEV retail penetration stabilized at 53.7%, an increase of 7.5 percentage points (ppt) month-over-month (MoM), although it declined by 1.5 ppt week-over-week (WoW) [1]. - This suggests that NEV penetration may exceed expectations in November [1]. 2. BEV Recovery: - Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) saw a rapid recovery in the first week of November with a MoM increase of 80%. Other categories included Extended Range Electric Vehicles (EREVs) at 54%, Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) at 35%, and ICE vehicles at 19% [1]. 3. PHEV Demand Momentum: - Insights from discussions with manufacturers like BYD and Geely indicate that PHEV manufacturers are ramping up capacity in 4Q24, with lower risks of demand being heavily front-loaded into 1Q25 [1]. - Potential extension of the old-for-new stimulus by the Chinese government could facilitate the conversion of locked-in PHEV orders into retail sales in 1Q25 [1]. 4. ICE Inventory Levels: - Higher inventory levels among ICE brands may lead to increased sales volatility towards year-end, potentially resulting in weaker demand in 1Q25 compared to NEV models [2]. Export Market Insights - Chinese brands held a 6.6% market share in the passenger vehicle (PV) segment outside of China as of September 2024, reflecting a 2.6 ppt year-over-year (YoY) increase [4]. - The report suggests that any potential US tariff policy could complicate the global auto supply chain, benefiting Chinese brands in markets like South America, the Middle East, ASEAN, and Oceania due to lower costs [4]. - Top picks in the sector include BYD, Geely, Yutong, and Brilliance, which is noted for its high yield and attractive risk-reward potential [4]. Market Share Trends - Japanese brands experienced declines in market share, with Toyota down 1.2 ppt YoY to 7.0%, Honda down 1.8 ppt YoY to 3.8%, and Nissan down 0.2 ppt YoY to 2.8% [4]. - German brands also saw declines, with Volkswagen down 1.1 ppt YoY to 9.4% and Audi down 0.3 ppt YoY to 2.8% [4]. - US brands faced similar declines, with SAIC GM down 1.8 ppt YoY to 2.5% and Changan Ford down 0.2 ppt YoY to 0.5% [4]. Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring government policies and market dynamics that could impact the NEV and ICE segments in China and abroad [1][4]. - Analysts express a cautious optimism regarding the NEV market's growth trajectory, particularly in light of potential government incentives and the ongoing transition towards electric vehicles [1][4]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the China Auto Manufacturers industry.