Global Metals & Mining_ All-time high steel net exports from China in Oct’24, on track for _100mn tonnes in 2024

Summary of the Conference Call on Global Metals & Mining Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the Global Metals & Mining industry, specifically the steel market in China. Key Points 1. Record Steel Net Exports: In October 2024, China achieved an all-time high in steel net exports, reaching 10.6 million tonnes, which is a 40% year-over-year increase. The total net exports for the first ten months of 2024 have already surpassed the entire fiscal year 2023 total, amounting to 86.3 million tonnes [1][2][4]. 2. Annual Projections: If the current rate of net exports continues, the total for fiscal year 2024 could exceed 100 million tonnes, representing a 24% year-over-year increase compared to fiscal year 2023 [1][4]. 3. Price Dynamics: A 500 RMB/tonne increase in Chinese steel prices from mid-September to early October has narrowed price differentials with global markets. However, the impact on export volumes typically lags by 2-3 months [1][3]. 4. Historical Context: Steel net exports peaked at 100 million tonnes in 2015, dropped to 52 million tonnes in 2021, and rebounded to 83 million tonnes in 2023. The current levels are still 18% below the peak in 2015 [4][5]. 5. Global Production Impact: The increase in Chinese steel exports is expected to reduce the production capacity for steel outside of China by more than 3% in 2024, indicating a significant influence on global steel production dynamics [5]. Additional Insights - Long-term Trends: The average monthly net export over the past five years has been around 4.7 million tonnes, highlighting the recent surge as a notable deviation from historical norms [3]. - Market Conditions: The increase in price differentials during July to early October has incentivized exports, suggesting that market conditions are conducive to continued high export levels in the near term [3]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the current state and future outlook of the steel market in China, emphasizing the significant increase in net exports and its implications for global steel production.