大类资产2025年展望-时变之应

Key Takeaways Industry/Company Involved * Global Asset Allocation: The document primarily focuses on global asset allocation strategies, with specific emphasis on the Chinese and US markets. Core Views and Arguments * 2025 Asset Allocation: The document suggests a shift towards a neutral balanced approach in 2025, increasing exposure to risk assets and decreasing exposure to safe assets compared to the defensive strategy adopted in the second half of 2024. [1] * US and China Stock-Bond Correlation: The correlation between stocks and bonds in the US and China has reversed, with China experiencing a negative correlation and the US a positive one. This reflects the different drivers of economic growth and inflation in the two countries. [1] * Stock Volatility: China's stock volatility is expected to decline in the long term due to low interest rates, deleveraging, increased institutional investor participation, and capital market reforms. Conversely, US stock volatility may rise. [3] * Asset Correlation: The correlation between Chinese and foreign assets has decreased, providing global investors with more diversification opportunities and enhancing risk-adjusted returns. [4] * Stock Allocation: Based on the changes in stock-bond correlation and volatility, the document recommends increasing the allocation of Chinese stocks in the portfolio, for example, from 60% to 70%. [5] * US Market Challenges: The positive correlation between stocks and bonds in the US makes asset allocation more difficult, necessitating increased allocation to non-stock-bond assets like gold. [10] * China Market Opportunities: The negative correlation between stocks and bonds in China facilitates effective asset allocation and balanced stock-bond positioning. [10] * Trump's Impact: Trump's election and policies have had a significant impact on the global economy, benefiting risk assets in the short term but posing risks of inflation and economic slowdown. [12] Other Important Points * Trend Analysis: The document identifies three major trends affecting asset allocation: the reversal of stock-bond correlation, changes in volatility, and the decrease in asset correlation. [3][4] * Volatility Drivers: The expected decline in Chinese stock volatility is attributed to low interest rates, deleveraging, increased institutional investor participation, and capital market reforms. [6] * Asset Correlation Implications: The decrease in asset correlation provides better diversification opportunities for global investors and enhances risk-adjusted returns. [7] * Asset Allocation Implications: The document provides insights into asset allocation based on the current market trends, suggesting an increase in Chinese stock allocation and a cautious approach to US markets. [8][10] * Risk Management: The document emphasizes the importance of risk management and flexibility in adjusting investment portfolios in response to policy changes and potential uncertainties. [12][24]