大摩：2025年中国股票策略展望，坎坷之路，仍看好A股，但下调了市场预期！ (中文)

Summary of Morgan Stanley's 2025 China Stock Strategy Outlook Company/Industry Involved - Company: Morgan Stanley - Industry: Chinese Stock Market Key Points and Arguments Market Outlook - The Chinese stock market is expected to face increased volatility in 2025 due to deflationary pressures and geopolitical tensions, particularly from tariffs [1][2][3] - The nominal GDP growth rate for China in 2025 is projected to be around 3%, indicating a challenging economic environment [2][13] - The MSCI China Index, Hang Seng Index, and other indices have revised targets reflecting limited upside potential, with expected changes of -1% for MSCI China Index (target 63), 0% for Hang Seng Index (target 19,400), and +4% for CSI 300 (target 4,200) [2][18] Economic Factors - The potential for significant fiscal stimulus in 2025 is low due to concerns over moral hazard and a shift towards a welfare state, leading to prolonged domestic deflation [2][13] - The U.S. is expected to increase tariffs and non-tariff restrictions on China, which will further pressure corporate earnings and market valuations [2][12][24] - The dollar is projected to depreciate against the yuan by 5% to 7.6 by the end of 2025, impacting the attractiveness of Chinese assets [3][22] Investment Strategy - A preference for A-shares over offshore markets is noted, as A-shares are less sensitive to geopolitical uncertainties and currency fluctuations [4][37] - The strategy includes a defensive approach, favoring sectors like telecommunications and utilities while reducing exposure to consumer and real estate sectors [5][176] - Key trades for 2025 include increasing positions in A-shares and stocks with better earnings and shareholder return prospects [6][182] Risks and Considerations - The report highlights the risks associated with potential tariff increases and geopolitical tensions, which could lead to significant market volatility [12][125][130] - The overall market sentiment is cautious, with a recommendation to avoid stocks exposed to tariff and supply chain risks [10][183] - The report emphasizes the need for a robust and timely implementation of consumption and real estate stimulus policies to support market recovery [35][44] Additional Insights - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market has increased significantly, indicating a potential for improved market activity [12] - The report suggests that the current market valuation reflects the policy shift, but risks remain tilted towards the downside due to external pressures [90][91] Analyst Recommendations - Analysts recommend focusing on stocks that are less affected by tariffs and supply chain risks, and those that are positioned well for potential fiscal stimulus [10][183] - The focus lists include stocks with strong earnings visibility and those that can benefit from the anticipated economic recovery [184][185] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The report discusses the implications of the U.S. elections on trade policies and the potential for increased tariffs, which could further complicate the investment landscape for Chinese stocks [14][125] - It also notes the importance of monitoring liquidity conditions and the impact of monetary policy on market dynamics [112][119] This summary encapsulates the key insights and strategic recommendations from Morgan Stanley's outlook on the Chinese stock market for 2025, highlighting the challenges and potential investment opportunities within the current economic context.