未知机构：快手观点四季度gmv指引低于买方预期全年利润符合预期在国-20241121

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company and Industry - The discussion primarily revolves around Kuaishou, a player in the live-streaming e-commerce and advertising industry, and its performance in the fourth quarter and projections for 2025 [1][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - GMV Guidance: Kuaishou's guidance for GMV in Q4 is below buyer expectations, indicating a slowdown despite support from national subsidy policies. Long-term structural weaknesses in live-streaming e-commerce remain to be observed [1][3]. - Advertising Revenue Outlook: Long-term improvements in advertising revenue are expected to come from macroeconomic recovery. There is a noted migration of merchants to other platforms, although some improvement is seen, with 2025 anticipated to be a year of normalized recovery, albeit with slower growth [2][4]. - Short-term Performance: For the period from Q4 to H1 2025, Kuaishou has conducted successful promotional activities, particularly in consumer electronics and home goods, suggesting some improvement in the e-commerce fundamentals [4]. - Valuation Comparison: Kuaishou's current valuation is at 9-10x PE, with a projected growth rate of 9-10% for 2025. In comparison, Alibaba is projected at 11% growth with uncertain profits, while Tencent is expected to have a stable profit release with a 10% growth rate, but slower advertising growth than Kuaishou [4]. - Revenue Growth: Overall revenue growth for Q4 is projected at 10%, a slight decrease from 11% in Q3. The guidance for e-commerce GMV growth in Q4 is 14%, which is below buyer expectations due to high-frequency digital expectations in October and November, with December experiencing seasonal slowdowns [4]. Additional Important Points - E-commerce Revenue Growth: The guidance for e-commerce revenue growth in Q4 is set at 18-19%, attributed to improvements in the take rate [5]. - Advertising Growth: Advertising revenue grew by 20% year-over-year in Q3, benefiting from external advertising cycles and the Olympics, which provided a boost to the entire industry [5][6]. - Cost Management: There is a slight increase in R&D expense ratio, while management expense ratio shows stable improvement. Despite an increase in marketing expenses, Kuaishou's net profit for the year is still projected between 17-18 billion [7]. - Gross Margin Improvement: The gross margin is expected to improve in Q4, with a year-over-year improvement of 1 percentage point, despite the impact of Olympic copyright fees in Q3 and Q4 [6].