美国的关税-汇率的两面

Key Points Industry/Company Involved - Industry: General financial market, specifically focusing on the Chinese currency (RMB) and its exchange rate dynamics with the US dollar (USD). Core Views and Arguments - RMB Stability: The RMB has shown relative stability against the USD during periods of USD index strength, with a projected range of 7.1 to 7.3 in the short term. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) may intervene if the RMB approaches 7.3 [2]. - Tariff Impact: The impact of potential new tariffs by the US on the RMB is expected to be weaker than in 2018 due to factors like the Fed's rate-cut cycle, China's proactive fiscal policy, and lower inflation [2]. - Determinants of RMB/USD: Key factors include nominal GDP growth gap between China and the US, China's monetary policy, foreign exchange supply and demand, central bank's exchange rate policy, and external factors like US fiscal policy, Fed policy, and international balance of payments [2]. - Model Estimation: A simplified model suggests that a 10% tariff on all imported goods and a 60% tariff on Chinese goods could lead the RMB to reach around 8.0, but the actual impact is expected to be less severe [9]. - Manufacturing Upgrades: China's industrial transformation has enhanced product competitiveness, partially offsetting the impact of tariffs and supporting the RMB [12]. - Monetary Policy: China's monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative in 2025, potentially involving significant interest rate cuts, open market operations, and precise and flexible interest rate adjustments [13]. - Flexible Exchange Rate: A flexible exchange rate is crucial for promoting economic growth and achieving international balance of payments equilibrium, avoiding a repeat of Japan's experience [15]. Other Important Points - US Policy Uncertainty: The impact of US policies on the USD exchange rate is uncertain, with potential trade retaliation measures by China [11]. - Inflation: China's lower inflation compared to other countries provides a buffer against currency depreciation pressures [8]. - Japanese Experience: China should learn from Japan's experience in the 1990s, avoiding overly optimistic economic policies and maintaining exchange rate flexibility [16].