展望未来：化债与发展：财政的多重目标推演

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion revolves around the Chinese fiscal policy and its implications for local governments and the economy. Core Points and Arguments 1. Multiple Goals of Fiscal Policy: The fiscal policy has at least two main objectives: risk prevention (debt reduction) and counter-cyclical adjustment. These goals can be emphasized differently depending on the economic context [2][3][4]. 2. Complexity of Fiscal Execution: The execution of fiscal policy is complex due to its dependence on local government actions, which can lead to uncertainties in outcomes. Unlike the central bank, which can implement changes immediately, fiscal measures require local execution [3][4][10]. 3. Historical Context of Fiscal Policy: Over the past four to five years, fiscal policy has been perceived primarily as a counter-cyclical tool, reinforced by events such as the issuance of special bonds and other fiscal measures [4][5][9]. 4. Debt and Economic Growth Relationship: The actual deficit rate has shown a clear relationship with economic growth, indicating that fiscal policy has not solely focused on counter-cyclical measures but has also aimed at other objectives [5][6][8]. 5. Debt Levels and Economic Context: The non-deficit debt ratio has been decreasing since 2020, suggesting a controlled approach to borrowing despite increasing GDP. This indicates a complex relationship between fiscal policy and economic growth [6][7][8]. 6. Shift Towards High-Quality Development: The current economic strategy emphasizes high-quality development rather than rapid growth, which influences fiscal policy decisions. The government is cautious about implementing aggressive stimulus measures [9][10][12]. 7. Short-term vs. Long-term Effects: While short-term fiscal measures can alleviate local government liquidity pressures, long-term effects remain uncertain due to the overall economic environment and local government financial health [14][15][16]. 8. Local Government Financial Health: A significant portion of local government expenditures is rigid, with 80% of spending categorized as essential. This creates challenges for local governments, necessitating fiscal policies that can provide relief [15][16]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. Market Expectations: There is a discrepancy between market expectations for fiscal stimulus and the actual policy direction, leading to confusion among investors [11][12]. 2. Future Fiscal Policy Outlook: The upcoming fiscal policies are expected to focus on debt reduction rather than aggressive growth stimulation, with potential adjustments in deficit rates anticipated for the following year [11][12][13]. 3. Impact of External Factors: The potential impact of external economic conditions, such as U.S.-China relations, may also influence fiscal policy decisions and market expectations [13][14].