India Solar PV manufacturing_ What is the end game_

Summary of the Conference Call on Indian Solar PV Manufacturing Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the Indian solar PV manufacturing industry, comparing it with global peers, particularly Chinese manufacturers [2][12]. Key Takeaways 1. High Valuation of Indian Solar Stocks: Indian solar stocks are trading at a significant premium compared to global counterparts, with Waaree Energies having an enterprise value (EV) of $10 billion and Premier Energies at$5 billion, despite lower capacities compared to Chinese players like JA Solar, which has an EV of $11 billion with much higher capacities [2][12]. 2. **Challenging Profitability Landscape**: The solar PV industry is characterized by a high churn rate among top producers, with many leading companies from 2010 now bankrupt or exited. The profitability of modules and cells has been consistently low, while integrated players in the polysilicon-ingot-wafer segments have fared better [3][16]. 3. **Cyclical Nature and Over-Supply**: The industry experiences consistent over-supply due to low barriers to entry and rapid capacity build-out. Average capacity utilization rates over the past 15 years have been low, with modules at 58$10 billion and 10 GW of operating renewable generation assets, is compared to Adani Green, which has an EV of $36 billion with a larger capacity. The valuation gap between these companies raises questions about market expectations [12][68]. - Electricity Costs as a Differentiator: The cost of electricity is a critical factor in production costs, especially for polysilicon. Companies in regions with lower electricity costs have a competitive edge [58][60]. Conclusion The Indian solar PV manufacturing industry faces significant challenges, including low profitability, over-supply, and rapid technological changes. While there are opportunities for integrated players, the market's current expectations may not align with the industry's realities.