Rare Earths Expert Call Takeaways

Summary of Key Points from the Rare Earths Expert Call Industry Overview - The call focused on the rare earths industry, featuring insights from Ms. Liqun Zhao, a specialist at Ruidao, on recent developments and future expectations in the sector [1] Regulatory Changes - New rare earth regulations effective October 1 have tightened supply control, including: 1. Strict adherence to mining and production quotas 2. Prohibition of purchasing, producing, and selling illegally mined rare earth products 3. Enhanced environmental controls throughout the production process [2] Impact of Myanmar Border Closure - The short-term closure of the Myanmar border is not expected to significantly impact rare earth prices, as production continues in other regions of Myanmar and China's domestic production is increasing [3] Market Dynamics - Major state-owned enterprises (SOEs) have gained market share due to consolidation of smaller SOEs and reduced illegal supplies, allowing them to influence market prices through various mechanisms [4] - Factors such as environmental inspections and government procurement may lead to short-term price volatility [4] Supply-Demand Balance - In 2024, the estimated production of NdPrd oxide is approximately 90kt, with domestic consumption around 83kt and exports of about 1.7kt, resulting in a surplus of approximately 5.3kt [5] - The surplus is expected to narrow to around 3kt in 2025, driven by an estimated 11% year-over-year growth in demand and slower growth in domestic mining quotas [5] Price Expectations - Higher average rare earth prices are anticipated in 2025, with NdPr oxide prices expected to rebound to Rmb450-500k/t during peak season [6] - Price ceilings for Dy oxide and Tb oxide are projected to be Rmb1.8-2.0 million/t and Rmb6-6.2 million/t, respectively [6] Additional Insights - The importance of Myanmar's supply has diminished as China's domestic production increases, and imports from other ASEAN countries have risen [3] - The expert does not foresee significant price impacts if the Myanmar border reopens within six months [3] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding the rare earths industry as discussed in the expert call.