明曦咨询 华府观点：“特朗普对中美关系未来影响”专家会纪要

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The records discuss the implications of U.S.-China relations under the potential second term of former President Trump, focusing on trade wars and tariffs impacting various industries, particularly manufacturing and agriculture. Core Points and Arguments 1. Continued U.S.-China Competition: The competition between the U.S. and China will remain central to Trump's Indo-Pacific policy, with a consensus across both U.S. political parties for a hardline stance against China. The relationship is expected to oscillate between intense competition and limited cooperation [1][2][3]. 2. Concerns Among U.S. Allies: U.S. allies in the Indo-Pacific region, including Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and Singapore, express anxiety over Trump's potential return to the White House, presenting both opportunities and challenges for China [1][2]. 3. Inevitability of Trade Wars: The trade and tariff wars are deemed unavoidable, with expectations that Trump may continue or even escalate punitive measures against China, leading to significant inflation risks and disruptions in stock and foreign exchange markets, as well as threats to global supply chains [1][2]. 4. Negotiation Challenges: While there may be a tendency for the Trump administration to seek a deal with China, achieving this will require substantial effort, resulting in a short-term outlook of predictable deterioration and long-term uncertainty in U.S.-China relations [1][2]. 5. Impact on High-End Manufacturing: The U.S. is tightening sanctions and increasing tariffs on high-end manufacturing and critical technology sectors. The Biden administration has already raised tariffs on various Chinese imports, including electric vehicles and solar panels [2][5]. 6. Tariff Increases on Low-End Manufacturing: The Trump administration is expected to impose significant tariffs and restrictions on low-end manufacturing products, affecting Southeast Asian countries that previously served as transit points for Chinese goods [5][6]. 7. Cross-Border E-commerce Concerns: The 2025 U.S. legislation regarding "minimum exemptions" poses a significant risk for Chinese cross-border e-commerce businesses, particularly concerning tariffs that cover a large portion of imports from China [5][6]. 8. Agricultural Sector as a Bargaining Chip: The agricultural sector is highlighted as a critical industry in the U.S.-China trade war, with potential retaliatory tariffs from China on U.S. agricultural exports, which could complicate trade relations [5][6]. 9. Regional Security and Economic Challenges: The Trump administration's policies create security uncertainties for U.S. allies in the Indo-Pacific, leading to increased competition for Chinese exports and potential trade investigations against Chinese goods from Southeast Asian countries [6][8]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The records emphasize the need for Chinese companies to closely monitor U.S. policy changes and adapt their strategies accordingly to navigate the evolving trade landscape [5][6][8]. - The potential for increased competition from Japanese and South Korean firms in the Asian export market due to U.S. tariffs is noted, indicating a shift in the competitive dynamics in the region [6][8].