Investment_Outlook_2025_EN

Industry/Company Involved * UBP Investment Outlook 2025 - This document is a comprehensive outlook for the global economy and investment opportunities in 2025, published by Union Bancaire Privée (UBP), a private bank and asset manager. Core Views and Arguments * Global Economy - Fragmented but Resilient: The global economy is expected to grow in 2025, but growth will be fragmented. The US, Asia, and a few European countries will be the main drivers of growth, while others may face challenges. * US Economic Outlook: The US economy is expected to grow in a range of 2-2.5% in 2025, driven by strong consumer spending, investment in new technologies, and ongoing fiscal stimulus. * Asia Economic Outlook: Asia is expected to be a major driver of global growth in 2025, with China's economy stabilizing and India and the ASEAN region experiencing strong growth. * European Economic Outlook: Europe's economic outlook is complex, with growth expected to be limited in the eurozone and UK. Political uncertainty and trade tensions pose risks to the region. * China Economic Outlook: China's economy is expected to stabilize in 2025, but growth will remain challenging. Policy measures to support the economy and reform the real estate sector are crucial. * Investment Opportunities: * Healthcare and Defence: These sectors offer resilience and accelerating growth in 2025. * Singapore: Offers cyclical exposure and attractive valuations. * Copper and Aluminium: Benefiting from US economic resilience and China's stimulus. * AI Hardware/Infrastructure: Expected to grow in 2025, but software adoption is lagging. * Investment Risks: * Rising Bond Yields: A potential rebound in US inflation could lead to higher bond yields. * Geopolitical Risks: Geopolitical tensions and trade wars pose risks to the global economy. Other Important Content * Inflation: Inflation is expected to remain a concern in 2025, particularly in the service sector and in the US and UK. * Currency: The US dollar is expected to remain strong in the short term, while emerging market currencies are likely to post a mixed performance. * Gold and Silver: Expected to perform well in 2025 due to geopolitical uncertainty and strong demand. * Hedge Funds: Can offer shelter against risks in a fragmented global economy.