TINCI(002709)2024-11-25 06:19Summary of Conference Call for Tianqi Materials Industry Overview - The lithium hexafluorophosphate (LiPF6) production is currently at 6,000-6,500 tons per month, with high capacity utilization. New capacity release is limited, and supply is expected to remain tight in 2024, keeping prices high [2][3][4]. - The electrolyte market demand is robust, projected to reach 1.8-1.9 million tons in 2024, with leading companies operating at full capacity. The overall growth rate is expected to be between 25%-30% [2][3][4]. - Downstream customer expectations for electrolyte demand in the coming months are positive, with production stabilizing above 50,000 tons in Q4 2023 and further growth anticipated in Q1 2024 [2][5]. Key Points on Lithium Hexafluorophosphate and Electrolyte - The current production capacity for LiPF6 is approximately 200,000 tons, with a total capacity of 110,000 tons. The top three companies are expected to operate at full capacity, leading to tight supply conditions [3][4]. - The price of LiPF6 is projected to rise to 62,000-65,000 CNY per ton in the short term, driven by processing fees rather than lithium carbonate prices [13][30]. FSI (Fluoroethylene Sulfonamide) Insights - FSI penetration is increasing, with 60% of sales formulations containing FSI. The expected usage in 2024 is around 18,000 tons [6][7]. - FSI prices are expected to fluctuate in line with LiPF6 prices, but the increase will be relatively smaller [2][6]. Solid-State Electrolyte Development - The company is actively developing solid-state electrolytes using a liquid-phase method to synthesize aluminum sulfide, aiming to reduce costs to 200,000-250,000 CNY per ton [2][8]. - The company has established a scalable production process and aims to commercialize the sulfide route for solid-state batteries [8][11]. Circular Economy and Recycling Initiatives - The company is building a circular industry chain, including lithium iron phosphate battery recycling and waste battery processing, to enhance profitability and competitiveness [2][18][19]. - A demonstration line for lithium iron phosphate batteries has been established, with a recycling capacity of 50,000 tons of waste batteries, achieving over 60% recovery rate for lithium carbonate [19][21]. Phosphate Iron Business Outlook - The company plans to sell 200,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate in 2024, with ongoing technical improvements to enhance production efficiency and reduce costs [2][20]. - The company has achieved cash flow break-even and aims to balance production and sales, with a focus on improving the compression density of lithium iron phosphate [20][22]. Market Dynamics and Future Projections - The European market is expected to perform better than anticipated, potentially impacting overall demand positively [26]. - The implementation of trade-in policies may lead to upward price risks, as initial expectations of a downturn may not materialize [27]. - The company anticipates that prices will not exceed 100,000 CNY per ton, as excessively high prices could disrupt market stability [28][30]. Conclusion - The company is well-positioned in the lithium and electrolyte markets, with strategic initiatives in solid-state technology and recycling that could enhance its competitive edge. The outlook for 2024 remains optimistic, with strong demand and pricing trends expected to support growth.